Mets vs Brewers Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – 8/08/2025

New York Mets

@

Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers host the New York Mets on August 8, 2025, this matchup marks the opening game of their series and sets the stage for a compelling battle between two teams with playoff aspirations. The Brewers sit at 70-44, enjoying a strong season, while the Mets, with a record of 63-52, are also having an above-average year. The Brewers currently rank as the 11th best offense in MLB, with a notable 3rd place in team batting average. However, they struggle with power, ranking 22nd in home runs.

On the mound, Brandon Woodruff is projected to start for Milwaukee. With a 3-0 record and a stellar ERA of 2.22, he’s been a crucial asset for the team. His 5.3 innings pitched projection indicates he can handle the workload, although he’s projected to allow a concerning 4.6 hits and 1.5 walks today. Woodruff’s low walk rate (3.9 BB%) could work in his favor against a Mets lineup that typically draws walks well.

Kodai Senga counters for New York. With a 7-3 record and an impressive ERA of 2.31, he’s shown he can compete with the best. However, his projected xFIP of 4.32 suggests he may have benefited from some good fortune this season. Senga is expected to pitch 5.2 innings, but he’s projected to give up 4.5 hits and 2.5 walks, which could be problematic against a potent Brewers offense.

Betting markets currently favor the Brewers, setting their moneyline at -125, reflecting a close contest. With the projections indicating a potential edge for Milwaukee, they aim to capitalize on their home advantage and continue their strong season.

New York Mets Insights

• Kodai Senga – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  In his last GS, Kodai Senga turned in a great performance and compiled 8 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Cedric Mullins is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Milwaukee (#2-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Mets bullpen ranks as the 7th-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Brandon Woodruff – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Brandon Woodruff has averaged 17 outs per outing this year, placing in the 83rd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Brice Turang is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  William Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-140)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 66 games (+25.95 Units / 29% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 48 away games (+11.70 Units / 20% ROI)
• Andrew Vaughn – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+155/-205)
  Andrew Vaughn has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+6.55 Units / 82% ROI)