Game Breakdown: Cubs vs Brewers Team Stats and Insights – July 30, 2025

Chicago Cubs

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Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers host the Chicago Cubs for the pivotal third game of their series on July 30, 2025. The Brewers are leading the National League Central with a record of 64-43, while the Cubs are closely behind at 62-45, making this matchup significant in the playoff race. Both teams are having strong seasons, but the Brewers will look to build on their momentum after defeating the Cubs 9-3 in their last game on July 29.

Freddy Peralta is projected to take the mound for Milwaukee. He boasts an impressive 12-4 record and an excellent ERA of 2.81 this season. Although advanced metrics suggest he may face some regression, Peralta’s ability to strike out batters (26.2 K%) will be crucial against a Cubs offense that is among the least strikeout-prone teams in MLB. However, his high flyball rate (40 FB%) raises concerns, especially against a Cubs lineup that ranks 3rd in home runs, boasting 156 long balls this season.

On the other side, Chicago’s Shota Imanaga has struggled recently, having been rocked for 7 earned runs in just 3 innings during his last start. His below-average projections could make this an uphill battle, particularly since he will face a Brewers offense that, while only ranked 15th overall, is 10th in batting average.

Despite the close standings, the Brewers’ pitching edge and recent offensive performance suggest they have a strong chance of claiming victory. The betting market favors Milwaukee slightly with a moneyline of -120, indicating they are expected to win a competitive matchup. As the game total is set at a low 7.5 runs, an offensive explosion from either side might be necessary to hit the over.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Shota Imanaga’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.5 mph this season (90.1 mph) below where it was last year (91.6 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Kyle Tucker is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Milwaukee (#2-best of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago Cubs bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Freddy Peralta has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 3.7 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Brice Turang has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (69% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  William Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 50 of their last 102 games (+20.80 Units / 16% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 49 of their last 100 games (+7.65 Units / 5% ROI)
• Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1200/-8000)
  Nico Hoerner has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+12.00 Units / 300% ROI)