Miami Marlins
St. Louis Cardinals
(-105/-115)-120
On July 28, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Miami Marlins at Busch Stadium in what marks the first game of a series between these two teams. Both squads are looking to improve their fortunes; the Cardinals stand at 54-53, while the Marlins are slightly behind at 50-54. The Cardinals, projected to start Andre Pallante, are coming off a tough loss against the Marlins, where they fell 9-2 in their last outing on July 27. Meanwhile, the Marlins also lost their previous game, dropping a close one 3-2.
Pallante, ranked as the 96th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, has had an average season with a 4.91 ERA. He has struggled recently, notably allowing 5 earned runs in his last start, which raises concerns about his performance. The projections suggest he will pitch around 5.9 innings today, allowing approximately 2.5 earned runs, but his tendency to give up 6.0 hits and 1.7 walks could be problematic.
Edward Cabrera, starting for the Marlins, has been more effective this season, holding a solid 3.48 ERA and ranking 75th among MLB pitchers. His last outing saw him allow just 1 earned run over 6 innings, showcasing his ability to limit damage. The projections indicate that Cabrera will pitch around 5.1 innings today, with similar expectations for earned runs, but he faces a Cardinals offense that ranks 15th overall, performing at an average level.
With a powerful Cardinals bullpen ranked 3rd in MLB, they may have the edge in close situations. However, with the Marlins’ offense boasting a higher batting average at 8th in the league, the matchup could be tighter than the betting lines suggest. The Cardinals’ current moneyline is set at -120, reflecting their status as slight favorites, but the Marlins could surprise if Cabrera continues his strong performance. The Game Total is currently set at 8.0 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive matchup.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)Out of all starting pitchers, Edward Cabrera’s fastball velocity of 95.9 mph is in the 91st percentile this year.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Typically, hitters like Jesus Sanchez who hit a lot of flyballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Andre Pallante.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Miami Marlins bats collectively grade out 22nd- in the majors for power this year when judging by their 8% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Andre Pallante will “start” for St. Louis Cardinals in today’s game but will be treated as more of an opener and may not remain in the game more than a couple frames.Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
- Masyn Winn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+160/-210)Masyn Winn has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 5.1% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the last two weeks.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Jordan Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Jordan Walker hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.8% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 51 games (+7.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+100)The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 42 games (+17.40 Units / 40% ROI)
- Thomas Saggese – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Thomas Saggese has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.40 Units / 63% ROI)