Player Analysis for Red Sox vs Twins – July 28, 2025

Boston Red Sox

@

Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins will host the Boston Red Sox at Target Field on July 28, 2025, in the opening game of their series. The Twins currently sit at 50-55, indicating a below-average season, while the Red Sox boast a record of 57-50, positioning them as above average in this competitive matchup. In their previous game on July 27, the Twins lost to the Red Sox by a score of 7-2, continuing their struggle to find consistency.

On the mound, the Twins are projected to start Simeon Woods Richard, who has had a challenging season, ranking as the 161st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Despite a respectable 4.14 ERA, his 5.02 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat lucky and may face tougher outings ahead. He will be opposed by Richard Fitts, who has struggled even more, holding a 4.86 ERA and a high 0.83 differential between his ERA and xFIP, indicating he might improve with better fortune.

Both pitchers are right-handed and have had abbreviated starts in their last outings, with Woods Richard going just 3 innings with 3 earned runs, while Fitts allowed 4 earned runs in a similar stint. This matchup could favor the Twins slightly, as their offense ranks 16th overall, while the Red Sox offense, which is 6th overall, may not have the advantage it usually enjoys against a low-strikeout pitcher like Woods Richard.

Betting markets currently reflect a tight contest, with both teams holding a moneyline of -110. The projections suggest that the Twins could score around 4.50 runs, aligning with their average performance, while the Red Sox also project similarly. With both teams needing a win to gain momentum, this game promises to be a tightly contested affair.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  With a 5.61 FIP this year (Fielding Independent Pitching, an ERA estimator that is concerned with the aspects of pitching most within the pitcher’s control), Richard Fitts falls in the 17th percentile.
  Explain: ERA is a bad and misleading stat. FIP is an improved version of it and gives a better estimate of a pitcher’s deserved runs allowed.
• Roman Anthony – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Roman Anthony has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94-mph to 98.7-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be smart to expect worse numbers for the Boston Red Sox offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 10th-luckiest offense in the league this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – Moneyline (-110)
  Among all the teams in action today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Minnesota Twins.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• DaShawn Keirsey – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  DaShawn Keirsey Jr. is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Boston (#2-best on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Minnesota Twins bats as a unit rank among the elite in MLB this year (7th-) in regard to their 89.7-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 27 games (+11.75 Units / 36% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 37 away games (+10.95 Units / 25% ROI)
• Trevor Larnach – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-125/-105)
  Trevor Larnach has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.75 Units / 27% ROI)