Check the Rankings and Game Forecast: Pirates vs Twins Analysis – 7/13/2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to face the Pittsburgh Pirates on July 13, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Twins, at 47-48, are having an average season, while the Pirates sit at a disappointing 38-58, struggling to find their footing. This matchup represents the third game in their series, with the Twins coming off a dominant 12-4 victory against the Pirates the previous day.

Projected to start for the Twins is Simeon Woods Richardson, who has seen a mixed season thus far. With a 5-4 record and a 4.08 ERA, his performance has been somewhat inconsistent, though he did pitch well in his last outing, going 5 innings with 0 earned runs. The projections suggest he might face challenges today, averaging 5.0 innings with 2.6 earned runs allowed, along with a concerning average of 5.0 hits and 1.5 walks surrendered. However, facing a Pirates offense that ranks 29th in MLB and has struggled to generate power, Woods Richardson could find an advantage, especially given his high flyball rate.

On the other hand, Pittsburgh is sending Mitch Keller to the mound. Despite his 3-10 record, Keller has a solid 3.58 ERA, though projections indicate he may be due for regression. He averaged 5.6 innings pitched, allowing 3.3 earned runs today, which is less favorable. Keller’s low walk rate might work in his favor against a Twins lineup that also doesn’t draw many walks, ranking 5th least in MLB.

Considering the Twins’ strong bullpen, ranked 2nd, and the Pirates’ struggles at the plate, the matchup favors Minnesota. The Twins are currently seen as betting favorites with a moneyline of -160, hinting at a favorable outcome against a Pirates team that has yet to find its rhythm this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Mitch Keller’s slider utilization has increased by 9.5% from last year to this one (25.1% to 34.6%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  Extreme groundball batters like Tommy Pham generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Simeon Woods Richard.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  Tommy Pham hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 10th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – Moneyline (-155)
  Out of all the teams playing today, the 2nd-worst infield defense is that of the the Minnesota Twins.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Willi Castro – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the plate, Willi Castro will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Mitch Keller today.
  Explain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• The Minnesota Twins (24.9% K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 5th-most strikeout-heavy group of hitters of the day.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 89 games (+10.30 Units / 10% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 52 of their last 83 games (+18.45 Units / 19% ROI)
• Ke’Bryan Hayes – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+125/-160)
  Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.30 Units / 42% ROI)