Weather Forecast for Rays vs Red Sox – July 12, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Boston Red Sox

On July 12, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the Tampa Bay Rays at Fenway Park in a crucial American League East matchup. Both teams are having above-average seasons, with the Red Sox holding a record of 51-45 and the Rays at 50-45. In their last outing, the Red Sox secured a resounding victory, showcasing their potent offense, which ranks as the 5th best in MLB this season.

The Red Sox will send Garrett Crochet to the mound, who is having an elite season, currently ranked 5th among starting pitchers in MLB. With a 9-4 record and an impressive 2.39 ERA, Crochet has been a reliable ace for Boston. However, projections suggest he may have been a bit lucky this season, as indicated by his higher 2.91 xERA. On average, he is projected to pitch 6.1 innings today, allowing 2.3 earned runs and striking out 7.0 batters, which bodes well against the Rays’ lineup.

Tampa Bay counters with Shane Baz, who has a solid 8-4 record but a more pedestrian 4.34 ERA. Baz, ranked 58th among starting pitchers, is expected to pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs. His performance has been a mixed bag, as he may have been unlucky this season, evident from his 3.80 xFIP.

Offensively, the Red Sox’s lineup has been a force, ranking 8th in batting average and 9th in home runs, while the Rays sit at 11th overall. Boston’s strong bullpen, ranked 4th in MLB, adds an additional layer of confidence as they look to extend their winning streak. With a moneyline of -185 favoring the Red Sox, the projections suggest a high team total of 4.57 runs, while the Rays are projected for just 3.43 runs. This matchup favors Boston significantly, setting the stage for an exciting showdown at Fenway Park.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Shane Baz – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Because groundball pitchers hold a substantial advantage over groundball bats, Shane Baz and his 44% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a favorable position in this matchup going up against 2 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Hitters such as Danny Jansen with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Garrett Crochet who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Collectively, Tampa Bay Rays batters have struggled as far as hitting balls in the launch angle span that tends to best-produce home runs (between 23° and 34°), rating 3rd-worst in baseball.
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Garrett Crochet has utilized his four-seam fastball 12% less often this year (41.7%) than he did last year (53.7%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Carlos Narvaez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Carlos Narvaez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (55% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Boston Red Sox bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Run Line -1.5 (+115)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Run Line in 43 of their last 78 games (+8.80 Units / 9% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line +1.5 (-140)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 24 of their last 37 away games (+13.20 Units / 26% ROI)
• Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-105/-125)
  Wilyer Abreu has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.90 Units / 64% ROI)