Winning Probability and Team Stats for Mariners vs Tigers Match – Saturday July 12, 2025

Seattle Mariners

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Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers will host the Seattle Mariners on July 12, 2025, in the second game of their series, with both teams looking to gain momentum. The Mariners triumphed in yesterday’s matchup, defeating the Tigers 12-3, a result that has left Detroit eager to bounce back. Currently, the Tigers sit at 59-36, enjoying a strong season, while the Mariners are hovering at 49-45, marking an above-average year.

On the mound, Detroit will send Casey Mize, who has been solid this season with a 9-2 record and an impressive ERA of 2.63. Despite being ranked as the 106th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, Mize’s recent performance shows promise, especially after a stellar outing on July 5, where he pitched 7 innings without allowing an earned run. However, he has been a high-flyball pitcher this year, which could be concerning against a potent Mariners lineup that has belted 128 home runs, ranking 6th in MLB.

Meanwhile, George Kirby will take the hill for Seattle. Although Kirby has struggled with a 3-4 record and a 4.22 ERA, he is ranked 30th among MLB starters and is projected to improve moving forward. His last start was strong, as he pitched 6 innings without giving up any earned runs while striking out 9 batters.

The Tigers boast the 6th best offense in MLB, which should be an advantage against a Mariners bullpen ranked 22nd. With a game total set at 8.0 runs, the projections suggest a competitive matchup, but the Tigers’ offensive prowess alongside Mize’s capability should give them the edge to even the series.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• George Kirby – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  George Kirby’s high utilization percentage of his fastball (54.6% this year) is likely dampening his results, since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+310/-450)
  Grading out in the 85th percentile for base-stealing, Julio Rodriguez has average 24.5 steals per 600 plate appearances this year.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• George Kirby – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Cal Raleigh, the Mariners’s expected catcher in today’s game, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Casey Mize – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Casey Mize’s 93.9-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1.5-mph fall off from last season’s 95.4-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Extreme flyball batters like Spencer Torkelson usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like George Kirby.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Detroit Tigers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Detroit Tigers’ bullpen grades out as the 9th-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 47 games at home (+12.88 Units / 24% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 86 games (+11.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+180/-235)
  Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+12.25 Units / 29% ROI)