Latest Player Stats for Yankees vs Mets – Sunday July 6, 2025

New York Yankees

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New York Mets

As the New York Mets and New York Yankees meet for the third game of their Interleague series on July 6, 2025, both teams are in the midst of contrasting seasons. The Mets currently hold a record of 52-38, showcasing a strong performance this year, while the Yankees stand at 48-41, having an above-average season. The stakes are high as the Mets look to capitalize on their home-field advantage after a decisive 12-6 victory over the Yankees in their last game on July 5.

On the mound, the Mets are projected to start Chris Devenski, who has only made four appearances out of the bullpen this season and has struggled with a 3.60 ERA. His projections suggest he may pitch only 1.5 innings, allowing around 1.0 earned runs, which limits his effectiveness. However, Devenski’s high strikeout rate (26.3 K%) could pose a challenge for the Yankees, who are known for their high strikeout rate as well.

In contrast, the Yankees will counter with Max Fried, an elite left-handed pitcher boasting a remarkable 2.13 ERA and a 10-2 record this season. Fried’s ability to induce groundballs (53% GB rate) could neutralize the Mets’ power-hitting capabilities, as indicated by their 118 home runs this season, ranking 6th in MLB.

Despite the odds favoring the Yankees, the Mets’ potent offense, which ranks 7th overall, could make this game competitive. The projections expect a high-scoring affair, with the game total currently set at 9.0 runs. With the Mets emerging victorious yesterday, they aim to keep that momentum going against a Yankees team that must bounce back to avoid falling further behind their rivals.

New York Yankees Insights

• Max Fried – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-195/+150)
  Compared to the average hurler, Max Fried has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an additional 6.1 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• DJ LeMahieu – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Bats such as DJ LeMahieu with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Chris Devenski who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Max Fried – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Austin Wells (the Yankees’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

New York Mets Insights

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+165)
  The New York Yankees have 6 batters in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage against Brandon Waddell in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  In the last 7 days, Francisco Lindor’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.2% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Moneyline (+160)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 45 games at home (+11.95 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 72 games (+13.37 Units / 17% ROI)
• Tyrone Taylor – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+125/-160)
  Tyrone Taylor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 65% ROI)