Discover Odds and Betting Trends for White Sox vs Rockies – 7/4/25

Chicago White Sox

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Colorado Rockies

As the Colorado Rockies prepare to host the Chicago White Sox on July 4, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling in the standings. The Rockies sit at 20-67, while the White Sox are slightly better at 28-59. This matchup is the first in a series between the two teams, and both are looking to turn around their disappointing seasons.

In their last outings, the Rockies edged out a victory on July 3, winning 7-6, while the White Sox fell to the opposition 6-2. This context adds a layer of urgency to the matchup, especially for the White Sox, who will be looking to bounce back after a rough game.

On the mound, the Rockies are projected to start Antonio Senzatela, who has struggled mightily this season, sporting a 3-11 record and a concerning ERA of 6.69. His recent performance has been particularly poor, as he allowed 5 earned runs in just 4 innings during his last start. In contrast, the White Sox will counter with Adrian Houser, who has had a solid season with a 3-2 record and an impressive ERA of 1.90. However, projections suggest that Houser may regress, given his higher xFIP of 4.07.

Hitting-wise, the Rockies’ offense ranks 25th in MLB, while the White Sox are at the bottom with the 30th-best offense. The Rockies do have some hope, as their best hitter has been on a tear, boasting a .462 batting average over the past week. This could provide a spark against a White Sox team that has struggled to score consistently.

With a high Game Total of 11.0 runs, this matchup promises excitement, and while the Rockies are underdogs at +115, they may have a chance to capitalize on their recent offensive success against a White Sox team that has had its own issues on the mound. The projections suggest that the Rockies could be undervalued in this matchup, making them an intriguing option for bettors looking for potential value.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Adrian Houser – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Adrian Houser will have the handedness advantage against 6 opposing batters today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Mike Tauchman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  In the past 7 days, Mike Tauchman’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.8% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox’ bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Antonio Senzatela – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Antonio Senzatela’s 2213-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 15th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Ryan Ritter – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Ryan Ritter has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 82.6-mph dropping to 80.1-mph in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that the Colorado Rockies will tally 5.99 runs on average in this matchup: the 2nd-most of all teams playing today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 11.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 74 games (+9.20 Units / 11% ROI)
• Over/Under 11.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 43 away games (+12.55 Units / 27% ROI)
• Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+185/-245)
  Miguel Vargas has hit the Walks Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.10 Units / 25% ROI)