Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Guardians vs Cubs – Thursday, July 3rd, 2025

Cleveland Guardians

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Cleveland Guardians on July 3, 2025, both teams come into this matchup with very different narratives. The Cubs, sitting at 51-35, are enjoying a strong season, currently positioned among the top contenders in the league. In contrast, Cleveland finds itself struggling with a record of 40-44, placing them in the lower tier of team rankings. Adding to the drama of the series, the Cubs secured a narrow victory against the Guardians yesterday, winning 5-4.

Cubs pitcher Cade Horton, projected to start, has had a tumultuous season with a 3-2 record and an ERA of 4.80, ranking him as the 165th best starter in MLB. His recent performance was concerning, as he allowed 7 earned runs in just 4 innings during his last outing on June 27. Meanwhile, Cleveland will counter with Joey Cantillo, who, despite being labeled as average, boasts a solid ERA of 3.81 this year and has been unfortunate in his previous starts, evidenced by a better xFIP of 3.27.

Offensively, the Cubs are thriving with the 4th best lineup in MLB, excelling in batting average, home runs, and runs scored. Their offensive prowess is a stark contrast to the Guardians’ struggles, as they rank 27th in the league. This significant gap in offensive production could give the Cubs the upper hand in this matchup. Additionally, the Cubs’ ability to capitalize on walks may further exacerbate Cantillo’s control issues, as he has shown a tendency to issue free passes.

With the stakes high in this interleague contest, the Cubs are favored with a moneyline of -150, indicating a greater likelihood of victory. The game total is set at an average 8.5 runs, reflecting expectations for a competitive contest. However, the Cubs’ momentum and offensive capabilities may well tip the scales in their favor.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Joey Cantillo – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Joey Cantillo has a reverse platoon split and has the benefit of facing 6 opposite-handed batters in today’s game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Kyle Manzardo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Kyle Manzardo is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Chicago (#2-best of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-140)
  Among all the teams playing today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the the Chicago Cubs.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Michael Busch – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Michael Busch has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (66% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Chicago Cubs have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-140)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 79 games (+10.95 Units / 9% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 80 games (+10.69 Units / 11% ROI)
• Ian Happ – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+500/-850)
  Ian Happ has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games at home (+8.25 Units / 138% ROI)