Game Time for Royals vs Mariners – 7/02/2025

Kansas City Royals

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Seattle Mariners

As the Seattle Mariners and Kansas City Royals meet again on July 2, 2025, the Mariners will look to bounce back after their 6-3 loss to the Royals on July 1, sparking a sense of urgency as they continue to vie for a stronger position in the standings. The Mariners currently hold a record of 44-41, trending toward an above-average season, whereas the Royals sit below .500 at 40-46, struggling significantly with the 27th ranked offense in MLB.

The matchup features two contrasting pitchers as Logan Gilbert takes the mound for Seattle, boasting a Power Ranking as the 17th best starting pitcher in MLB. Despite his 2-2 record, Gilbert’s 3.55 ERA and high strikeout rate (37.0 K%) suggest he has been a consistent force, and projections indicate he will pitch an average of 6.3 innings with 7.0 strikeouts today. However, he faces a low-strikeout Royals offense, which could hinder his ability to capitalize on his strengths.

Noah Cameron, starting for Kansas City, has struggled this season with a 2-4 record and a higher xFIP of 4.39 compared to his impressive 2.79 ERA, signaling he may be due for some regression. The Mariners’ offense, ranked 10th overall, is equipped to take advantage of Cameron’s flyball tendencies, particularly as they have excelled in power with the 6th most home runs in MLB.

With a game total set at a low 7.0 runs and the Mariners as clear favorites with a moneyline of -180, expectations are high for Seattle to take control of the series against the Royals, who continue to battle inconsistency.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Noah Cameron – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  Given that groundball pitchers have a significant edge over groundball batters, Noah Cameron and his 33.7% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a favorable position in this outing matching up with 3 opposing GB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jac Caglianone – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  In the past week’s worth of games, Jac Caglianone’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.2% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Salvador Perez pulls many of his flyballs (36.9% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Logan Gilbert has relied on his change-up 8.8% more often this year (22.2%) than he did last season (13.4%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Mitch Garver – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Mitch Garver has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 96.5-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 92.6-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Seattle Mariners have been the 4th-luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 78 games (+14.30 Units / 17% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 54 of their last 77 games (+29.90 Units / 33% ROI)
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+150/-195)
  J.P. Crawford has hit the Walks Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 52% ROI)