Chicago Cubs
Houston Astros
(-105/-115)-120
On June 28, 2025, the Houston Astros will host the Chicago Cubs at Minute Maid Park in what promises to be an exciting Interleague matchup. Both teams are enjoying strong seasons, with the Astros holding a record of 49-33 and the Cubs at 48-34. In their previous encounter on June 27, the Astros secured a 7-4 victory, adding to their momentum.
Lance McCullers Jr. is projected to take the mound for the Astros. While his record this season stands at 1-2, he has shown potential with a 3.91 xFIP, suggesting he could perform better than his 4.91 ERA indicates. His struggles have been evident, as he has allowed an average of 2.1 earned runs and projects to pitch only 4.3 innings today, along with a concerning average of 3.9 hits allowed. Conversely, Colin Rea of the Cubs has had a rough outing in his last start, giving up 7 earned runs over 5 innings.
The Astros’ offense, ranked 14th overall but 5th in team batting average, is well-equipped to take advantage of Rea’s inconsistencies. Houston’s best hitter boasts a .322 batting average and an impressive 0.867 OPS, and has been productive lately, posting a .350 batting average over the last week. Meanwhile, the Cubs, although ranking 4th overall in offense, might face challenges against McCullers, who has a below-average strikeout rate against a lineup less prone to strikeouts.
With the Astros currently favored at -115, the betting markets suggest a close contest. However, given the Astros’ strong offensive capabilities and the potential for McCullers to outpace his earlier performances, they may be in a better position than the odds suggest. The game total of 8.5 runs indicates expectations for a competitive matchup.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Colin Rea – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)Colin Rea has gone to his four-seam fastball 25.8% more often this season (45.7%) than he did last season (19.9%).Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)Extreme flyball bats like Kyle Tucker usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Lance McCullers Jr..Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)Seiya Suzuki hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41.6% — 100th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 9th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Houston Astros Insights
- Lance McCullers Jr. – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Among all SPs, Lance McCullers Jr.’s fastball velocity of 90.7 mph grades out in the 16th percentile this year.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Christian Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)Christian Walker is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Placing 6th-highest in baseball this year, Houston Astros batters as a unit have compiled a 15.2° launch angle on their highest exit velocity balls (a reliable standard to study power skills).Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.
Betting Trends
- Houston Astros – Moneyline (-120)The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 29 games at home (+13.65 Units / 34% ROI)
- Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 34 of their last 72 games (+5.10 Units / 5% ROI)
- Matt Shaw – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+125/-160)Matt Shaw has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 20 away games (+6.95 Units / 30% ROI)