Picks and Betting Guide for Marlins vs D-Backs – Saturday, June 28, 2025

Miami Marlins

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to face off against the Miami Marlins on June 28, 2025, both teams are aiming to capitalize on their respective situations. The Diamondbacks, currently holding a 41-40 record, are having an average season, while the Marlins sit at 35-45, marking them as one of the struggling teams in the league. With the Diamondbacks’ offense ranking as the 3rd best in MLB, their potent lineup may pose a challenge for the Marlins’ pitching staff.

In their previous matchup, the Diamondbacks emerged victorious, continuing their efforts to stay competitive in the National League. For this game, Arizona is projected to start Brandon Pfaadt, who has completed 16 starts this season with a Win/Loss record of 8-5. However, Pfaadt’s ERA of 5.49 suggests he has faced difficulties on the mound. Still, his xFIP of 4.15 indicates he may have been unlucky, hinting that he could find improved performance going forward.

On the other hand, Miami’s Sandy Alcantara also has had a rough season, sporting a 4-8 record with a troubling ERA of 6.69. His struggles are compounded by a high walk rate of 10.3%, which bodes well for a Diamondbacks offense that ranks 4th in most walks drawn. Though Alcantara has the ability to pitch deep into games, with a projection of 6.0 innings for this matchup, he will have to contend with a lineup that has hit 118 home runs this season.

As for betting angles, the Diamondbacks are favored with a moneyline of -145, reflecting their higher projected team total of 4.58 runs, compared to the Marlins’ 3.92 runs. With both pitchers struggling, this matchup sets the stage for a potentially high-scoring contest, and the Diamondbacks’ lineup could exploit Alcantara’s inefficiencies to secure another win.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Sandy Alcantara – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Sandy Alcantara’s 96.5-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 95th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Eric Wagaman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Eric Wagaman has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (77% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Miami Marlins have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Stowers, Dane Myers, Connor Norby).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  Brandon Pfaadt is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.7% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #29 HR venue in MLB in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Ketel Marte has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 95.6-mph average in the past week’s worth of games to his seasonal 91.1-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 70 games (+12.30 Units / 12% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Run Line +1.5 (-165)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Run Line in 24 of their last 35 away games (+11.85 Units / 26% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+480/-800)
  Eugenio Suarez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games at home (+13.60 Units / 170% ROI)