Explore Player Props Preview for Dodgers vs Royals – 6/28/25

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to host the Los Angeles Dodgers on June 28, 2025, they find themselves in a challenging position. The Royals, currently sitting at 38-44, are struggling this season and rank 28th in MLB offense. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have been dominant, boasting a 52-31 record and ranking 1st in MLB for both team batting average and home runs.

In their last matchup, the Royals were unable to keep pace, falling to the Dodgers in a game where Shohei Ohtani showcased his prowess, albeit from the bullpen. Today, Ohtani is projected to start, and he brings an elite reputation with him; he is ranked 10th among starting pitchers in MLB, despite having yet to start a game this season. Ohtani’s 4.50 ERA is somewhat misleading, as his 2.54 xFIP suggests he has been unlucky and is likely to improve.

On the other side, Seth Lugo will take the mound for Kansas City. While Lugo has an impressive 2.93 ERA this year, his Power Rankings position at 102nd indicates that he is an average performer overall. His projections for today suggest he will struggle, allowing an average of 3.3 earned runs and 6.0 hits over 5.4 innings.

The Royals’ offense, which ranks 29th in home runs, faces a daunting task against the Dodgers’ elite pitching and hitting. With the game total set at 9.5 runs, the projections suggest a high-scoring affair, favoring the Dodgers significantly. Kansas City is currently a +145 underdog, and while they may have some advantages, the odds heavily favor Los Angeles in this interleague matchup.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)
  Out of all starters, Ben Casparius’s fastball velocity of 95.9 mph is in the 91st percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Extreme groundball bats like Max Muncy generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Seth Lugo.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Los Angeles Dodgers hitters collectively rank 4th- in the game for power this year when using their 10.4% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Seth Lugo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Given that groundball batters hold a significant edge over flyball pitchers, Seth Lugo and his 42.7% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a hard spot in today’s outing matching up with 4 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Over the past week, Maikel Garcia’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.6% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Today, Salvador Perez is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 4th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37.2% rate (95th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 65 games (+26.05 Units / 34% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 68 games (+7.45 Units / 10% ROI)
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+140/-180)
  Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+13.60 Units / 32% ROI)