Explore Player Props Preview for Cardinals vs Guardians – 6/27/25

St. Louis Cardinals

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Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians face off against the St. Louis Cardinals on June 27, 2025, at Progressive Field, both teams seek to recover from recent shutout losses. The Guardians were blanked 6-0 by the Chicago White Sox in their last outing, while the Cardinals fell to the Atlanta Braves by a score of 3-0.

In the current standings, the Guardians hold a record of 40-39, reflecting an average season, while the Cardinals sit at 44-38, marking an above-average performance. The Guardians need to turn things around quickly, as they rank 25th in MLB in offense, particularly struggling with generating power, ranking 23rd in home runs. Their best hitter has shown some recent life, with a .375 batting average over the past week, but the offense as a whole has been lacking.

On the mound, the Guardians will send Luis Ortiz, who is projected to pitch 5.4 innings while allowing 2.8 earned runs. Ortiz’s recent performances have been marked by inconsistency—despite his decent xFIP of 3.65, he has a challenging win-loss record of 4-8 this season and has allowed an alarming 5.6 hits per game on average. Meanwhile, the Cardinals will counter with Sonny Gray, whose impressive 7-2 record and strong 3.72 ERA make him the 28th best starting pitcher in MLB according to Power Rankings. Gray projects to yield slightly fewer earned runs than Ortiz, making this matchup critical for Cleveland’s offensive revival.

With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, betting markets view this as a tightly contested affair. The Cardinals hold a slight edge in the moneyline at -120, but the Guardians, with a current moneyline of +100, could very well pull off an upset, especially with a solid bullpen that ranks 8th best in MLB. This game is the first in a series between these two teams, and it’s clear that both clubs will be eager to bounce back from their recent disappointments.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Sonny Gray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Because flyball pitchers hold a significant edge over flyball hitters, Sonny Gray and his 31% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good position in today’s outing matching up with 3 opposing FB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Nolan Arenado is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Nolan Arenado pulls many of his flyballs (42.6% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Daniel Schneemann – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Daniel Schneemann has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.5-mph average to last year’s 90.5-mph average.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Cleveland Guardians have 4 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Bo Naylor, Lane Thomas, Gabriel Arias, Nolan Jones).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 41 games (+9.84 Units / 21% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (-120)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 50 games (+9.70 Units / 16% ROI)
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Lars Nootbaar has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 6 games (+6.80 Units / 77% ROI)