Check the Injuries Update for Rays vs Orioles – 6/27/2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles host the Tampa Bay Rays on June 27, 2025, both teams enter the matchup with contrasting seasons. The Orioles sit at 34-46, struggling to find their footing, while the Rays boast a record of 46-35 and solidify their position as a competitive force in the American League East.

In their last game, the Rays showcased their talent with a dominant performance, and they have now won five of their past six games. Meanwhile, the Orioles have been inconsistent, making it all the more important for them to find a way to break their current slump. This matchup features two right-handed pitchers on the mound: Tomoyuki Sugano for the Orioles and Ryan Pepiot for the Rays. Sugano, despite having a respectable ERA of 3.55 this season, is ranked just 274th among starting pitchers, while Pepiot appears to be a step above with a 3.04 ERA and a Power Ranking of 57th.

The projections suggest that both pitchers are likely to have a challenging day, particularly in terms of hits and walks allowed. Sugano projects to give up 5.9 hits and 1.2 walks, which could prove problematic against a Rays lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB in batting average. On the flip side, while Pepiot’s performance has been impressive, he too faces potential difficulties, with projections indicating he might allow 4.7 hits and 1.8 walks.

With the Game Total set at a high 9.0 runs and the Orioles holding a moneyline of +105, this matchup appears to be closely contested. Given the offensive struggles of the Orioles, who rank 23rd in team batting average, the odds may lean slightly toward the Rays, making this a crucial game for both teams as they continue to navigate their respective seasons.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ryan Pepiot – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Ryan Pepiot in the 85th percentile when assessing his strikeout ability.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Brandon Lowe has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 92-mph average to last year’s 89.8-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• As a team, Tampa Bay Rays hitters have done poorly when it comes to hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (between 23° and 34°), rating 2nd-worst in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Cedric Mullins tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Ryan Pepiot.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles’ bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 32 games (+10.95 Units / 31% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line -1.5 (+130)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 34 games (+15.15 Units / 35% ROI)
• Chandler Simpson – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-150/+120)
  Chandler Simpson has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.90 Units / 36% ROI)