Dive Into the Head-to-Head Preview: Pirates vs Brewers Matchup June 25, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to host the Pittsburgh Pirates on June 25, 2025, the stakes are high for the struggling Pirates, currently sitting at 32-49. Meanwhile, the Brewers, boasting a solid 44-36 record, are looking to build on their recent success after defeating the Pirates 9-3 in their last matchup on June 24.

On the mound, the Brewers will send out Jacob Misiorowski, who has emerged as a promising right-handed pitcher this season. Despite being ranked just 126th among MLB starters, Misiorowski has maintained an impressive 1.64 ERA and a perfect 2-0 record over his two starts. However, his 3.64 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate and could face challenges moving forward. Misiorowski projects to pitch around 4.6 innings today, allowing an average of 1.9 earned runs while striking out about 5.5 batters.

Facing him will be the elite Paul Skenes, ranked 2nd among MLB starters. Skenes, with a 1.85 ERA and a 4-6 record, has started 16 games this year and is coming off a solid outing where he struck out 9 batters in 6 innings. He projects to pitch approximately 5.9 innings today, allowing 1.7 earned runs while striking out 6.6 batters.

The Brewers’ offense ranks 18th in MLB, while the Pirates’ offense finds itself in a dismal 29th position, particularly struggling with power as they sit last in home runs. With such a stark contrast in offensive capabilities, the Brewers appear poised to capitalize on Misiorowski’s strengths against a high-strikeout Pirates lineup, enhancing their chances for victory despite the low implied team total of 3.25 runs. The Game Total for this matchup is set at a mere 6.5 runs, indicating a potentially tight contest.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Paul Skenes has used his secondary pitches 23% more often this year (55.4%) than he did last year (32.4%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Adam Frazier – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Adam Frazier is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Pittsburgh’s 89.1-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in the league: #24 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-strongest among all the teams playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Christian Yelich has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Pittsburgh Pirates has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Jackson Chourio hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-145)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 45 of their last 76 games (+10.05 Units / 11% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 69 games (+15.15 Units / 19% ROI)
• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 3.5 Hits Allowed (-160/+125)
  Paul Skenes has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.95 Units / 35% ROI)