Atlanta Braves
New York Mets
(-110/-110)+125
As the New York Mets and the Atlanta Braves prepare for their matchup on June 24, 2025, the stakes are high for both teams, particularly for the Braves, who are struggling this season with a record of 36-41. The Mets, sitting at 46-33, are having a strong campaign and currently rank 5th overall in MLB offense. In their last game, the Braves faced off against the Mets and suffered a disappointing defeat, which only adds to the pressure as they look to bounce back.
The pitching duel features Frankie Montas for the Mets, who has struggled this season, currently ranked 225th among starting pitchers according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Montas projects to pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing an average of 3.2 earned runs, which is less than ideal given the Mets’ offensive firepower. On the other side, Spencer Strider is set to take the mound for the Braves. Ranked 17th among pitchers, Strider has a solid ERA of 3.89 and projects to strike out an average of 6.4 batters today. However, he has also been unlucky this season, as indicated by his 3.31 SIERA, suggesting he might perform better than his record indicates.
Offensively, the Mets have been impressive, particularly with their power, ranking 6th in team home runs this season. Their best hitter has been on a tear lately, boasting a .333 batting average and a 1.262 OPS over the past week. In contrast, the Braves’ best hitter has also been productive, recording a .417 batting average and an OPS of 1.313, but their overall offensive ranking is just 17th in MLB.
With the Mets favored at +125, the projections suggest they could produce around 4.15 runs, while the Braves are expected to score approximately 4.85 runs. Given the current trends and the pitching matchup, this game presents a compelling opportunity for bettors to consider the Mets’ chances against a struggling Braves team.
Atlanta Braves Insights
- Spencer Strider – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Spencer Strider will wring up 6.4 strikeouts in today’s game.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
- Matt Olson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)Matt Olson has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.8-mph average to last year’s 91.3-mph EV.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Atlanta’s 89.8-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in MLB: #6 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
New York Mets Insights
- Frankie Montas – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)Frankie Montas has experienced some positive variance in regards to his strikeouts since the start of last season, compiling an 8.84 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.89 — a 0.95 K/9 gap.Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Tyrone Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Extreme groundball hitters like Tyrone Taylor tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Spencer Strider.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Brandon Nimmo has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 75 games (+10.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 53 games (+13.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- Matt Olson – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)Matt Olson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+6.90 Units / 28% ROI)