See the Weather Forecast for D-Backs vs White Sox – Monday, June 23rd, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

@

Chicago White Sox

In a pivotal matchup on June 23, 2025, the struggling Chicago White Sox host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Guaranteed Rate Field. Both teams enter the game with contrasting trajectories: while the White Sox are floundering with a 25-53 record, the Diamondbacks stand at a more respectable 39-38. In their last game on June 22, the White Sox managed to secure a rare victory, winning 4-2, whereas the Diamondbacks fell by the same score, marking yet another setback in what has been an average season.

The White Sox will send Shane Smith to the mound. Although his ERA of 2.85 suggests effectiveness, advanced metrics indicate he has been somewhat fortunate, as his xFIP sits at 4.31. Additionally, Smith’s high walk rate of 9.7% could pose problems against the Diamondbacks, who have the 4th highest walk rate in MLB. Eduardo Rodriguez, projected to start for Arizona, has had a rough go this season, with a 5.93 ERA, but his xFIP of 4.07 suggests he may be due for a turnaround, especially against a White Sox lineup that ranks 30th in team batting average and power.

As for the offensive showdown, the Diamondbacks boast the 3rd best offense in MLB, while the White Sox’s bats rank dead last. This stark contrast could give Arizona a significant edge, as they hold an implied team total of 4.78 runs, suggesting expectations for a productive night at the plate.

The game total of 9.0 runs indicates a high-scoring affair could be in the cards, making this a critical matchup for both teams as they look to gain momentum heading into the summer stretch. Given the projections and current form, the Diamondbacks emerge as the favorites, but the unpredictable nature of baseball always leaves room for surprises.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  Eduardo Rodriguez is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.5% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #3 HR venue among all major league parks in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Alek Thomas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Chicago’s #1-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Alek Thomas, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• The underlying talent of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected offense today (.320 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount weaker than their .336 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Shane Smith – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have 6 batters in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage against Shane Smith in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Kyle Teel – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Kyle Teel has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (64% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox’ bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – Run Line +1.5 (-145)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Run Line in 34 of their last 55 games (+9.25 Units / 14% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 56 games (+14.45 Units / 21% ROI)
• Luis Robert – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+120/-150)
  Luis Robert has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.10 Units / 35% ROI)