Weather for Reds vs Cardinals Game – 6/22/25

Cincinnati Reds

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St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals host the Cincinnati Reds in a crucial National League Central matchup on June 22, 2025. With both teams still eyeing postseason aspirations, the stakes are high. The Cardinals enter this game with a 42-35 record, putting them slightly above average, while the Reds sit at 39-38, marking a more pedestrian season. In their last encounter, the Cardinals edged out the Reds, adding pressure for Cincinnati to respond.

Miles Mikolas, the Cardinals’ projected starter, has had a mixed season, boasting a 4-4 record with an ERA of 4.35. Despite his advanced-stat Power Rankings placing him as the 189th best starting pitcher in baseball, the projections indicate that he may be poised for improvement, as evidenced by his 3.72 FIP, suggesting some bad luck has hindered his results. Mikolas has been known as a low-strikeout pitcher (14.6 K% this year) facing a Reds offense that ranks 6th in MLB for strikeouts, potentially giving him an edge today.

On the opposing mound, Andrew Abbott has been a revelation for the Reds, holding a stellar 1.84 ERA and a 6-1 record. However, projections hint that he might regress slightly in production. His expected performance aligns more closely with his 3.92 xFIP, which is significantly higher than his ERA.

Offensively, the Cardinals rank 12th in MLB, driven by a solid batting average of .270, but they struggle in home runs, ranking 23rd. The Reds’ offense, on the other hand, ranks 14th overall but boasts a notably average batting average of .257.

Today’s game total is set at a high 9.5 runs, reflecting expectations for a competitive outing. St. Louis currently holds a moneyline of -110, suggesting that sportsbooks anticipate a tightly contested game.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Andrew Abbott – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Andrew Abbott’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.2 mph this year (91.6 mph) below where it was last year (92.8 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Extreme groundball batters like Elly De La Cruz are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Miles Mikolas.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds’ bullpen ranks as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  Miles Mikolas is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.9% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #26 HR venue among all parks in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Lars Nootbaar is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 94% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Nolan Arenado pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.7% — 100th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 8th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (-110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 51 games (+10.75 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 43 games (+5.45 Units / 11% ROI)
• Gavin Lux – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+110/-140)
  Gavin Lux has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.15 Units / 27% ROI)