Learn from the Match Preview: Brewers vs Twins Game Forecast – June 22, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to host the Milwaukee Brewers on June 22, 2025, they find themselves in a tight race, currently sitting at 37-39. Meanwhile, the Brewers are enjoying a stronger season with a record of 42-35, placing them well in the standings. This game marks the third matchup in their series, and the stakes are high as both teams seek to gain momentum.

In their previous encounter, the Twins struggled, which has been a common theme this season. David Festa is slated to take the mound for Minnesota. Though he has shown flashes of potential, his 4.78 ERA and 1-1 record indicate that he has been less than stellar this year. Advanced metrics suggest he may have been unlucky, as evidenced by his 4.04 SIERA, which is significantly lower than his ERA. However, Festa’s high flyball rate (42%) might work in his favor against a Brewers lineup that has struggled with power, ranking just 6th least in home runs this season.

On the other side, Quinn Priester will start for Milwaukee. With an impressive 3.46 ERA and a solid 5-2 record, Priester has been a reliable arm for the Brewers. However, his 4.10 xFIP suggests he might have benefitted from some luck this season. While Priester’s average innings pitched is decent at 5.2, today’s projections indicate both pitchers could face challenges, particularly in allowing hits and runs.

The Twins’ offense currently ranks 16th overall, and while they have some capable hitters, their 20th ranking in batting average raises concerns. In contrast, the Brewers’ offense ranks 21st, but they excel in stealing bases, which could be a factor in this matchup. With a Game Total set at 9.5 runs, the betting landscape favors the Twins, who are currently the betting favorites at -140. They boast a high implied team total of 5.07 runs, suggesting that oddsmakers expect them to capitalize on their home advantage.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Quinn Priester – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Quinn Priester in the 9th percentile as it relates to his strikeout talent.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Sal Frelick’s average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 85.3-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 77.8-mph over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 3rd-least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the Milwaukee Brewers with a 20.2% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – Moneyline (-125)
  The Minnesota Twins infield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest out of all the teams today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Milwaukee’s #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Matt Wallner, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Minnesota Twins batters jointly grade out 25th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when using their 91.8-mph exit velocity on flyballs.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Run Line -1.5 (+160)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 37 of their last 66 games (+8.30 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 75 games (+13.40 Units / 16% ROI)
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Brice Turang has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.15 Units / 35% ROI)