Washington Nationals
Los Angeles Dodgers
(-110/-110)-255
As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to host the Washington Nationals on June 21, 2025, at Dodger Stadium, they find themselves in a strong position. The Dodgers lead the National League West with a commendable 47-30 record, while the Nationals linger at the bottom of the National League East with a struggling 31-45 mark. The Dodgers emerged victorious in the first game of this series, showcasing their offensive prowess, which ranks as the 1st best in MLB this season.
Dustin May is projected to take the mound for the Dodgers. Despite his average Win/Loss record of 4-4 and ERA of 4.46 this season, he ranks as the 78th best starting pitcher according to advanced stats, indicating he is above average. May’s recent projections suggest he will pitch approximately 5.5 innings, allowing around 2.7 earned runs. While he does have control issues, demonstrated by a high walk rate of 9.5 BB%, the Nationals’ low-walk offense may struggle to capitalize on this.
On the other hand, the Nationals will counter with Jake Irvin, who has had a rough go this season with his 5-3 record and an ERA of 4.23. Though he has been lucky in his performances, with a concerning xERA of 5.24, projections indicate that he may pitch only 4.9 innings, allowing 3.8 earned runs on average.
Given the Dodgers’ powerful lineup—ranked 1st in both batting average and home runs—against a Nationals offense that ranks 21st overall, this matchup heavily favors Los Angeles. The Dodgers are significant betting favorites with a moneyline of -275, underscoring their strong likelihood of success in this contest.
Washington Nationals Insights
- Jake Irvin – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jake Irvin has used his secondary pitches 7.9% more often this year (49.6%) than he did last season (41.7%).Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Josh Bell – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)Extreme flyball hitters like Josh Bell generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Dustin May.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Luis Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Luis Garcia Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 9th-shallowest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-220)In his previous game started, Dustin May was rolling and conceded 0 ER.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Over the last 7 days, Freddie Freeman’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.8% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-255)The Los Angeles Dodgers projected offense projects as the strongest on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games at home (+10.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 60 games (+11.92 Units / 17% ROI)
- Teoscar Hernandez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-110/-120)Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+9.80 Units / 47% ROI)