Current Player Trends for Mariners vs Cubs – Saturday June 21, 2025

Seattle Mariners

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to face off against the Seattle Mariners at Wrigley Field on June 21, 2025, both teams are looking to bounce back from their recent outcomes. The Cubs fell to the Mariners 9-4 in their last game, while the Mariners celebrated a solid victory. With the Cubs holding a 45-30 record and the Mariners sitting at 38-36, the stakes are high in this Interleague matchup, especially considering the Cubs are projected to start Cade Horton, who has had a solid season despite ranking as the 121st best starting pitcher in MLB.

Horton’s performance has been somewhat inconsistent, as he projects to pitch only 4.4 innings, allowing an average of 2.9 earned runs. His last outing on June 13 was strong, with 0 earned runs over 6 innings, but his overall projections suggest he may struggle against the Mariners’ offense, which ranks 11th overall in MLB this season.

On the other side, Emerson Hancock, projected to start for the Mariners, has been less effective, ranking among the worst pitchers in MLB. However, he pitched well in his last game, throwing 7 innings without allowing an earned run. Nevertheless, his projections indicate he may also have a tough outing, expected to allow around 3.7 earned runs.

The Cubs’ offense is firing on all cylinders, ranking 4th in MLB and boasting an impressive 6.97 implied team total for today’s game. With the Mariners’ offense ranking 11th and their best hitter riding a hot streak, this game promises to be a high-scoring affair, reflected in the high Game Total of 12.5 runs. With the Cubs as the betting favorites at -165, they aim to leverage their strong lineup against a struggling Mariners pitching staff.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Emerson Hancock – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Emerson Hancock’s sinker percentage has risen by 7.2% from last year to this one (29.8% to 37%) .
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Randy Arozarena – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Randy Arozarena has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 91.7-mph dropping to 80.3-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Emerson Hancock – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Cal Raleigh, the Mariners’s expected catcher today, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-165)
  The Chicago Cubs outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-best among all the teams playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Typically, batters like Kyle Tucker who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Emerson Hancock.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen profiles as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-170)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 73 games (+12.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 12.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 71 games (+5.05 Units / 6% ROI)
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 2.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+6.85 Units / 25% ROI)