Player Analysis for D-Backs vs Blue Jays – June 19, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Toronto Blue Jays

On June 19, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will look to continue their strong play as they host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays currently sit at 40-33, leading the way in a competitive AL East, while the Diamondbacks are at 36-37, navigating an average season in the NL West. In their last matchup, the Blue Jays secured a victory, showcasing their depth and offensive prowess.

Toronto’s Kevin Gausman, projected to start, has been a steady presence on the mound. Despite a 5-5 record and an ERA of 4.08, advanced stats suggest he has been somewhat unlucky this season, as indicated by his lower xFIP of 3.55. Gausman’s low walk rate of 6.5 BB% could give him an edge against an Arizona offense that ranks 4th in MLB for walks. This matchup may neutralize one of the Diamondbacks’ strengths, allowing Gausman to dictate the pace of the game.

On the other hand, Ryne Nelson will take the hill for Arizona. Although he has a decent 3-2 record, his ERA of 4.14 and below-average strikeout rate (19.8 K%) raise some concerns. Facing a Blue Jays lineup that has the 1st lowest strikeout rate in MLB, Nelson may struggle to capitalize on his strengths.

Offensively, the Blue Jays rank 14th overall while the Diamondbacks boast an impressive 3rd-best ranking, driven by their capability to hit home runs, sitting at 3rd in that category. However, Toronto’s bullpen ranks 3rd in MLB, providing a significant advantage late in games.

With a current moneyline set at -135 for the Blue Jays, betting markets indicate a close contest, yet Toronto’s combination of pitching and offensive depth positions them well to secure another victory against Arizona.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (+130)
  Out of all the teams today, the strongest infield defense is that of the Arizona Diamondbacks.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Jose Herrera – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (+120/-155)
  Jose Herrera is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Toronto (#3-best on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen projects as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)
  Kevin Gausman is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.3% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #4 HR venue among all major league stadiums in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Addison Barger – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Addison Barger has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (59% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 49 games (+11.20 Units / 21% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 47 games (+11.20 Units / 17% ROI)
• Addison Barger – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)
  Addison Barger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+8.40 Units / 69% ROI)