Check Out the Team Stats and Prediction for Brewers vs Cubs Matchup 6/19/2025

Milwaukee Brewers

@

Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs will host the Milwaukee Brewers on June 19, 2025, in a pivotal National League Central matchup. Both teams are looking to make a statement, especially after the Cubs secured a 5-3 victory over the Brewers just two days ago. Currently, the Cubs sit at a strong 45-28, while the Brewers are at 39-35, indicating that Chicago is having a great season compared to Milwaukee’s above-average performance.

Jameson Taillon is projected to take the mound for the Cubs. Although his advanced-stat Power Ranking places him at #141 among MLB starters, his current ERA of 3.48 suggests he’s had some luck this season, as indicated by his 4.59 FIP. Taillon’s last outing on June 12 was solid, where he went 6 innings, allowing just 2 earned runs and striking out 7. However, he does have a tendency to give up fly balls, which could be a concern against the Brewers, who have struggled with power this year.

On the other side, Jacob Misiorowski will make just his second start of the season. While he boasts an impressive 0.00 ERA, his 4.92 xFIP indicates that he might not maintain this level of performance. Misiorowski pitched a remarkable 5-inning no-hitter in his last start on June 12, but the small sample size raises questions about his consistency.

Offensively, the Cubs rank 4th in MLB, showcasing a powerful lineup with 99 home runs. In contrast, the Brewers are ranked 23rd in offense, including a disappointing 25th in home runs. This disparity in power could give the Cubs an edge, especially given the projections that suggest a high implied team total of 4.40 runs for Chicago. With both teams eager to gain ground in the standings, expect a competitive game at Wrigley Field.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  Jacob Misiorowski is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.2% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #23 HR venue in MLB in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Sal Frelick is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Chicago (#3-best on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 5th-least strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the Milwaukee Brewers with a 20.3% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Jameson Taillon – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Jameson Taillon has utilized his cutter 12.6% less often this year (12.4%) than he did last year (25%).
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Carson Kelly – Over/Under Hits
  Carson Kelly has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (56% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games (+10.50 Units / 45% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 59 games (+13.10 Units / 20% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-130/+100)
  Jackson Chourio has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 15 games (+3.50 Units / 21% ROI)