Explore Twins vs Reds Expert Picks and Betting Guide – 6/19/2025

Minnesota Twins

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Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds will host the Minnesota Twins on June 19, 2025, in what promises to be an exciting Interleague matchup. After their recent victory over the Twins by a score of 4-2 on June 18, the Reds are looking to build momentum and strengthen their position in the standings. Cincinnati sits at 39-35 this season, showcasing an above-average performance, while Minnesota is hovering around .500 with a record of 36-37, marking an average year thus far.

Cincinnati will send Nick Martinez to the mound, who has been a solid performer with an ERA of 3.92 this season. Although his win/loss record stands at 4-7, Martinez ranks as the 86th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, indicating that he has the potential to outshine his record. In his last start on June 13, he pitched 5 innings allowing 4 earned runs, which was a less-than-stellar outing. However, projections suggest he can deliver an average of 5.4 innings while allowing 2.9 earned runs, which would be favorable against Minnesota’s struggling offense.

On the other side, Chris Paddack will take the hill for the Twins. Paddack has struggled this season, posting a 4.30 ERA and a dismal last outing where he allowed 8 earned runs over just 4 innings. His projections are equally concerning, as he is expected to give up 3.1 earned runs and 5.6 hits today. The Reds’ offense, ranking 10th overall in MLB, is positioned well to capitalize on Paddack’s vulnerabilities.

With both teams’ bullpens showing contrasting strengths—Cincinnati ranked 24th and Minnesota 9th—the Reds may have an edge in the later innings. The game total is set at 9.5 runs, indicating expectations for a high-scoring affair. Bettors should keep an eye on the Reds, who are favored at -110, suggesting a closer contest than their current team form might imply.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – Moneyline (-110)
  The Minnesota Twins infield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest out of all the teams in action today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Ty France – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Ty France is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Minnesota Twins have done a favorable job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-hit balls. Their 15.5° angle is among the highest in the game this year (#7 overall).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  Nick Martinez is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.7% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #1 HR venue among all parks in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Will Benson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Will Benson has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 99.1-mph average to last season’s 93.4-mph EV.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  The Cincinnati Reds bullpen projects as the 7th-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 69 games (+7.20 Units / 9% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Run Line -1.0 (+125)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 35 of their last 62 games (+8.05 Units / 10% ROI)
• Brooks Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Brooks Lee has hit the Hits Over in his last 15 games (+15.00 Units / 53% ROI)