Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
(-110/-110)+110
The San Diego Padres host the Los Angeles Dodgers on June 9, 2025, in a critical National League West matchup. Both teams are having solid seasons, with the Padres sitting at 37-27 and the Dodgers at 39-27. In their last encounter, the Padres edged out the Dodgers 1-0, showcasing their strong pitching. However, some inconsistency has plagued the Padres lately, as Nick Pivetta, projected to start today, struggled in his last outing, allowing five earned runs over six innings.
Pivetta, who ranks as the 55th best starting pitcher in MLB, has a respectable 6-2 record and an impressive ERA of 3.16 this year. However, he’s projected to struggle against the powerful Dodgers lineup, known for their 102 home runs, the 2nd most in MLB. With Pivetta being a high-flyball pitcher, the Dodgers could take advantage, potentially turning flyballs into home runs.
On the other hand, the Dodgers’ Dustin May, ranked 57th among starting pitchers, enters the game with an average ERA of 4.09. He last pitched effectively, allowing just two earned runs over six innings. Despite this, his season has seen mixed results, reflected in his modest 3-4 record.
The projections indicate a game total of 8.0 runs, suggesting a competitive atmosphere. The Padres’ offense ranks 21st in MLB, showcasing a lack of power with only 56 home runs this season. In contrast, the Dodgers boast the 2nd best offense overall and the 1st best batting average. With the Padres’ bullpen rated 3rd best and the Dodgers’ at 4th, this matchup could hinge on which offense can take advantage of their opponent’s pitching, making for an intriguing game.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)Dustin May is an extreme groundball pitcher (46.1% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Petco Park — the #9 HR venue among all stadiums — today.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
- Tommy Edman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)In the last two weeks, Tommy Edman’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.6% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)Max Muncy pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.2% — 98th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 6th-deepest RF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Nick Pivetta – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)Nick Pivetta’s slider percentage has dropped by 9.4% from last season to this one (29.2% to 19.8%) .Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
- Luis Arraez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)Luis Arraez’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 87.9-mph figure last season has dropped off to 85.2-mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-prone lineup today is the San Diego Padres with a 18.5% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 46 games (+9.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 58 games (+5.80 Units / 9% ROI)
- Manny Machado – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+400/-620)Manny Machado has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+9.90 Units / 124% ROI)