Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels
On June 8, 2025, the Los Angeles Angels will host the Seattle Mariners at Angel Stadium for the third game of their series. The Mariners currently hold a slight edge in the American League West, sitting at 32-31, while the Angels are below average at 30-33. Both teams are looking to capitalize on their recent performances, with the Angels coming off a narrow 8-6 win yesterday, while the Mariners are looking to bounce back after the same defeat.
Tyler Anderson is projected to take the mound for the Angels. Despite his ranking as the 209th best starting pitcher in MLB, Anderson’s 3.86 ERA suggests he has had some good fortune this season. However, his xFIP of 5.13 indicates potential struggles ahead, as he projects to allow an average of 3.0 earned runs over 5.4 innings. Facing him will be George Kirby of the Mariners, who has struggled this season with an 8.56 ERA despite a more favorable xFIP of 4.25. Kirby’s 0-3 record in just three starts this year highlights his inconsistency, but he may be due for a turnaround given his underlying metrics.
From an offensive perspective, the Angels rank 20th overall in MLB but are 3rd in home runs, showcasing their ability to hit for power. In contrast, the Mariners sit at 13th overall, with a solid home run rank of 6th. With the Angels’ high flyball rate, they might provide Kirby with the opportunity to capitalize on flyball outs.
Given the projections, the Angels have a high implied team total of 4.34 runs, suggesting the odds makers see potential in their lineup. However, with Kirby facing a high-strikeout Angels offense, this matchup could tilt in favor of the Mariners if they can exploit Anderson’s vulnerabilities.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- George Kirby – Over/Under StrikeoutsGeorge Kirby’s 96-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season grades out in the 88th percentile out of all starters.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- J.P. Crawford – Over/Under Total BasesJ.P. Crawford’s average exit velocity has fallen off in recent games; his 86.7-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 81.6-mph over the last two weeks.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under Total BasesAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Julio Rodriguez ranks as the 18th-best hitter in Major League Baseball.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Los Angeles Angels – 1st Five Innings (F5) MoneylineTyler Anderson is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.3% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #10 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this matchup.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Mike Trout – Over/Under Total BasesExtreme flyball hitters like Mike Trout usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like George Kirby.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- The Los Angeles Angels have 5 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Logan O’Hoppe, Scott Kingery, Mike Trout, Chris Taylor, Jo Adell).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Los Angeles Angels – 1st Five Innings (F5) MoneylineThe Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games (+7.15 Units / 88% ROI)
- Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team TotalThe Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 56 games (+5.55 Units / 8% ROI)