Player Rankings for Phillies vs Pirates – 6/07/25

Philadelphia Phillies

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Pittsburgh Pirates

On June 7, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Philadelphia Phillies at PNC Park for the second game of their series. This matchup comes on the heels of an exciting game yesterday, where the Pirates edged the Phillies with a narrow 5-4 victory. The Pirates currently sit at 24-40 for the season, struggling significantly, while the Phillies are performing much better with a record of 37-26.

The pitching matchup features Andrew Heaney for the Pirates, who has had a rocky season with a 3-4 record and a solid 3.39 ERA, but his advanced metrics suggest he may not be as effective going forward. Heaney’s last outing was encouraging; he went 6 innings, allowing just 2 earned runs, but his projections for today indicate he could struggle, allowing an average of 3.1 earned runs and striking out a below-average 4.4 batters.

On the other side, the Phillies will counter with Ranger Suarez, boasting an impressive 4-0 record and a stellar 2.72 ERA. Suarez has been effective in his recent starts, and though projections suggest he might allow around 2.6 earned runs today, he is ranked 28th among MLB starters. His ability to keep the ball on the ground (55% groundball rate) could work in his favor against a Pirates lineup that ranks 27th in offensive efficiency and lacks power.

Despite the Pirates’ victory yesterday, the Phillies enter as favorites with a moneyline of -145, compared to the Pirates’ +125. The game total is set at an average 8.0 runs, signaling potential for a competitive matchup, yet the projections lean heavily toward Philadelphia’s strong offensive capabilities, where they rank 8th in MLB.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Given that flyball hitters are less effective against flyball pitchers, Ranger Suarez (50.4% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 2 FB hitters in the opposition’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Johan Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Pittsburgh’s #2-ranked outfield defense of the day poses a formidable challenge for Johan Rojas, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• The Philadelphia Phillies have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Schwarber, Otto Kemp, Weston Wilson).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Nick Gonzales – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+185/-245)
  Nick Gonzales is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Pittsburgh’s 93.1-mph exit velocity on flyballs ranks them as the #6 offense in the majors this year by this stat.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games (+8.55 Units / 19% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 32 away games (+7.00 Units / 19% ROI)
• Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+750/-1600)
  Andrew McCutchen has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+8.00 Units / 160% ROI)