Game Time for Cubs vs Nationals – 6/05/2025

Chicago Cubs

@

Washington Nationals

As the Chicago Cubs clash with the Washington Nationals on June 5, 2025, at Nationals Park, the stakes are palpable, especially given the backdrop of the Nationals’ recent victory over the Cubs by a score of 2-0 just a day prior. While the Cubs (38-23) are enjoying a solid season, sitting comfortably in playoff contention, the Nationals (29-32) find themselves struggling, with the record reflecting an underwhelming performance thus far.

Jake Irvin is projected to take the mound for the Nationals. Although his Power Rankings suggest he’s among the 226th best starting pitchers in MLB, his recent efforts show he can be resilient. Despite his last start on May 30, where he allowed 6 earned runs, he holds a decent ERA of 3.93. Irvin, however, faces a powerful Cubs offense that ranks 3rd in MLB and has tallied an impressive 81 home runs this season.

Colin Rea will be the starting pitcher for the Cubs, also coming off a rough outing in which he allowed 6 earned runs in his last start. His ERA stands at 3.96, and the projections suggest he may not be as effective moving forward. The Cubs’ offense, encapsulated by their 2nd rank in batting average and 5th in home runs, poses a significant threat.

While the Nationals’ offense ranks 15th overall—considered average—they’ve been bolstered by their best hitter currently shining with a .435 batting average over the last week. However, the Cubs’ lineup has exhibited remarkable depth and prowess that could exploit Irvin’s flyball tendencies.

With a Game Total set at 9.5 runs, higher than average, and the Cubs favored with a moneyline of -150, they bring a strong advantage into this matchup, supported by their remarkable offensive statistics and a more robust overall season.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Drew Pomeranz – Over/Under 1.5 Strikeouts (+180/-235)
  Drew Pomeranz’s 2590-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 98th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.328) provides evidence that Pete Crow-Armstrong has had positive variance on his side this year with his .371 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen ranks as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Jake Irvin – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)
  Recording 18.3 outs per GS this year on average, Jake Irvin checks in at the 93rd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Alex Call – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Alex Call has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (52% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  James Wood has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+135)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 28 games (+6.88 Units / 24% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-155)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 55 games (+12.20 Units / 14% ROI)
• Ian Happ – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.85 Units / 39% ROI)