Player Props for Rangers vs Rays – Wednesday June 04, 2025

Texas Rangers

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Tampa Bay Rays

On June 4, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Texas Rangers at George M. Steinbrenner Field in a matchup featuring two teams with contrasting seasons thus far. The Rays, currently sitting at 31-29, have shown flashes of promise while the Rangers hold a 29-32 record, suggesting a below-average season. The game will be the second in a series that began yesterday, where Tampa Bay emerged victorious, continuing their upward trend amidst a competitive American League landscape.

Shane Baz, projected to start for the Rays, has had a solid season despite a slightly below-average ERA of 4.92. Baz’s 4.00 xFIP indicates he may have been unlucky, implying better performances lie ahead. He has started 11 games this year, showcasing his ability to contribute to the team’s success. Meanwhile, the Rangers will counter with Kumar Rocker, who has struggled with an 8.10 ERA and a concerning Win/Loss record of 1-3 in five starts. Rocker’s projections suggest that he could improve, but the numbers strongly favor Baz in this matchup.

Offensively, the Rays have an average ranking of 17th in MLB, with a standout ability to steal bases, ranking 1st across the league. This speed on the bases could prove pivotal against a Rangers team that, despite being 28th in overall offense, ranks respectably in home runs and has some capable hitters.

Given the Rays’ strong pitching matchup and favorable offensive stats, they are positioned as betting favorites with a moneyline of -140 and an implied team total of 4.54 runs. With the Rangers’ struggles on both offense and the mound, the Rays appear poised to capitalize on their home advantage in this contest.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Kumar Rocker – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Kumar Rocker to be on a pitch count in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 68 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Extreme groundball batters like Marcus Semien are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Shane Baz.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Texas Rangers have been the 2nd-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in future games
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Shane Baz – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Shane Baz has utilized his curveball 12.1% more often this year (32.6%) than he did last year (20.5%).
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Matt Thaiss – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Matt Thaiss has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (51% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The 7.5% Barrel% of the Tampa Bay Rays ranks them as the #25 offense in the game this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 43 games (+11.80 Units / 25% ROI)
• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 45 games (+15.25 Units / 29% ROI)
• Adolis Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+150/-195)
  Adolis Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+9.40 Units / 22% ROI)