Injury Report for Dodgers vs Mets – Saturday, May 24th, 2025

Los Angeles Dodgers

@

New York Mets

The New York Mets host the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 24, 2025, in a significant National League matchup. Both teams are having strong seasons, with the Mets sitting at 30-21 and the Dodgers slightly ahead at 32-19. Their previous encounter in the series was a competitive game, showcasing the intensity between these clubs.

On the mound, the Mets will send out David Peterson, noted for his high ground-ball rate at 57%, which could play well against the power-heavy Dodgers lineup that has hit 81 home runs this season, ranking 2nd in MLB. Peterson’s ERA of 2.86 is impressive and obscures the fact that his 3.56 xFIP suggests some regression may be on the horizon. He carries a win/loss record of 2-2 into this game, having started 9 games this year. Despite a less-than-stellar projection of allowing 5.0 hits and 2.4 walks today, Peterson’s ability to limit damage with ground balls might keep the Dodgers’ power in check.

Opposing Peterson is Tony Gonsolin, who has started 4 games this season with a perfect 2-0 record. Although his ERA stands at 4.05, indicating average performance, his 4.63 FIP points to a bit of luck behind that number. Gonsolin’s projections aren’t favorable, as he’s expected to pitch just 4.6 innings while allowing 4.0 hits and 2.1 walks.

The Dodgers’ offense ranks as the 2nd best in the league, boasting the top batting average. In contrast, the Mets have shown some power but rank 15th in home runs and batting average. Bettors should note that the projected game total is 8.5 runs, indicating an expectation for a competitive and possibly high-scoring affair. Overall, this matchup highlights the strength of the Dodgers against the Mets’ adaptable pitching, creating an intriguing dynamic as the season progresses.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Tony Gonsolin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Tony Gonsolin’s high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (59.4% since the start of last season) figures to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Freddie Freeman can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers projected lineup projects as the strongest on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

New York Mets Insights

• David Peterson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  David Peterson’s 90.7-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1.2-mph fall off from last year’s 91.9-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Starling Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Extreme groundball batters like Starling Marte usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Tony Gonsolin.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 47 games (+9.25 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 48 games (+4.45 Units / 8% ROI)
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-110/-120)
  Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.35 Units / 42% ROI)