Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
(-110/-110)-110
The Tampa Bay Rays and the Toronto Blue Jays face off again on May 24, 2025, after the Rays secured a 3-1 victory in yesterday’s contest. This matchup holds significance as both teams are vying for a better position in the American League East, with the Rays at 24-26 and the Blue Jays at 25-25.
Tampa Bay’s Shane Baz, projected to start, enters with a mixed bag of results this season. While he ranks as the 86th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, his ERA of 5.33 suggests he’s been unlucky, as indicated by his 4.06 xFIP. In his last start on May 18, Baz struggled, allowing 5 earned runs over 6 innings. He projects to pitch 5.6 innings today, allowing 3.0 earned runs and striking out an average of 4.4 batters, which is below average.
On the other hand, Toronto’s Jose Berrios, noted for being one of the worst pitchers in MLB this season, has a more favorable ERA of 4.19. However, his metrics indicate that he has been somewhat fortunate, as his 5.11 xERA signals potential regression. Berrios pitched well in his last outing, allowing just 2 earned runs over 6 innings, but he projects to give up 3.2 earned runs today.
Offensively, the Rays rank 24th in MLB, indicating struggles at the plate despite leading the league in stolen bases. In comparison, the Blue Jays’ offense ranks 19th, with a better batting average but limited power, reflected in their 26th rank in home runs.
Given the close odds, with both teams at -110, the Rays’ slight edge in pitching and the favorable matchup against Berrios could allow them to exceed expectations. With both teams looking to build momentum, this game shapes up to be tightly contested.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Jose Berrios – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)Jose Berrios’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.6 mph this season (91.9 mph) below where it was last year (93.5 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Anthony Santander – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Typically, bats like Anthony Santander who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Shane Baz.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Toronto Blue Jays batters jointly have been among the best in Major League Baseball this year (9th-) in regard to their 89.7-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Shane Baz – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)Because flyball pitchers hold a sizeable advantage over flyball batters, Shane Baz and his 34.9% underlying FB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong spot in this matchup being matched up with 2 opposing FB batters.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Chandler Simpson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)Chandler Simpson has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (58% of the time), but he is penciled in 9th in the lineup in this matchup.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Danny Jansen pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.5% — 100th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 7th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 47 games (+10.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line -1.0 (+125)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 49 games (+10.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- Chandler Simpson – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+180/-235)Chandler Simpson has hit the Stolen Bases Over in his last 4 games (+6.50 Units / 162% ROI)