Rockies vs D-Backs Game Time – 5/18/2025

Colorado Rockies

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Arizona Diamondbacks

On May 18, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks host the Colorado Rockies in what shapes up to be an intriguing National League West matchup at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks enter the game with a respectable record of 24-22 and are enjoying an above-average season, while the Rockies have struggled significantly, sitting at a dismal 8-37. In their last game, the Diamondbacks took the series opener with a decisive victory, showcasing their offensive prowess, which ranks as the 3rd best in MLB this season.

Merrill Kelly is projected to take the mound for the Diamondbacks. With a solid 4-2 record and a respectable 3.71 ERA, Kelly has been a reliable starter despite a slightly inflated xERA of 4.44, suggesting he may have been a bit fortunate so far this season. He is a low-strikeout pitcher facing a Rockies lineup that leads MLB in strikeouts, a matchup that favors Kelly’s strengths.

Opposing him will be Chase Dollander, who has struggled with a 2-4 record and a troubling 6.88 ERA. Dollander’s high walk rate of 10.5% coupled with the Diamondbacks’ patient offense could lead to a challenging outing for the rookie. Arizona’s offense has not only been potent but has also demonstrated great plate discipline, ranking 3rd in MLB in walks.

With the Diamondbacks’ offense firing on all cylinders and a solid matchup against Dollander, they are favored heavily, holding a moneyline of -335. The projections indicate an implied total of 5.78 runs for Arizona, making them a strong bet to capitalize on their offensive advantage against a struggling Rockies team likely to find it difficult to score. The Game Total is set at 9.0 runs, reflecting expectations for a high-scoring affair.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Chase Dollander – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  With 7 hitters who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Chase Dollander has a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Mickey Moniak is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the strong outfield defense of Arizona (#1-best on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Brenton Doyle – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  In today’s matchup, Brenton Doyle is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.3% rate (91st percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Merrill Kelly’s 91-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a significant 1-mph decrease from last season’s 92-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Geraldo Perdomo is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 61% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Arizona Diamondbacks in today’s game has an estimated true talent wOBA of .326, which is significantly worse than their actual wOBA of .341 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -1.0 (-150)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 35 games (+7.55 Units / 18% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 38 games (+9.45 Units / 20% ROI)
• Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Hunter Goodman has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+7.70 Units / 39% ROI)