Learn How to Watch the Cardinals vs Royals Game – May 18, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

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Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to face the St. Louis Cardinals on May 18, 2025, both teams find themselves in competitive but distinct positions. The Royals currently hold a record of 25-22, indicating an above-average season, while the Cardinals are slightly ahead at 26-20, enjoying a good season. This matchup is crucial as both teams are looking to build momentum, especially after the Royals dropped the previous game in this series.

On the mound for the Royals, Michael Wacha is projected to start. Wacha has had an interesting season, with a record of 3-4 and an impressive ERA of 2.96, marking him as an above-average pitcher according to Power Rankings, where he sits at #70 among approximately 350 pitchers. However, his peripherals suggest he might have been a bit lucky, as his xFIP sits at 4.30, indicating potential regression. He projects to pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs but might struggle with hits and walks, averaging 5.2 hits and 1.6 walks allowed.

Matthew Liberatore will take the mound for the Cardinals. With a record of 3-3 and an ERA of 3.11, he is considered an average pitcher. His 2.30 FIP indicates that he may be poised for improvement, as he projects to pitch 5.2 innings while allowing approximately 2.8 earned runs. Both pitchers are facing offenses that have struggled in various areas; the Royals rank 25th in MLB in overall offensive performance, while the Cardinals are 7th, showcasing a significant disparity.

The projections suggest that the Royals have a slight edge in this game, especially considering the Cardinals’ bullpen ranks 24th in MLB. With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, betting markets indicate a close matchup, but the Royals could capitalize on their home advantage and Liberatore’s average performance.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Matthew Liberatore – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-165)
  With 7 hitters who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Matthew Liberatore will have a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Willson Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Willson Contreras has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.4-mph to 96.9-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The St. Louis Cardinals (18.5 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 2nd-least strikeout-prone group of hitters on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Wacha – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Michael Wacha’s fastball velocity has dropped 1 mph this season (92.6 mph) below where it was last year (93.6 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Extreme flyball batters like Salvador Perez usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Matthew Liberatore.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Kansas City Royals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Kansas City Royals’ bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst among all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 25 games at home (+13.20 Units / 46% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+115)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 31 games (+11.45 Units / 30% ROI)
• Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+100/-130)
  Maikel Garcia has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.05 Units / 68% ROI)