Expert Picks and Betting Line for Mets vs Yankees – Saturday May 17th, 2025

New York Mets

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New York Yankees

The New York Yankees will host the New York Mets in an exciting interleague matchup on May 17, 2025. This game carries significant weight as both teams are having strong seasons, with the Yankees sitting at 26-18 and the Mets slightly ahead at 28-17. Both teams are vying for playoff positioning, making this a crucial game in the early summer stretch.

In their last outing on May 16, the Yankees emerged victorious against the Mets, winning 6-2. Clarke Schmidt is projected to start for the Yankees, bringing a mixed bag of results this season, holding a 1-1 record with an average ERA of 4.73. However, his underlying metrics suggest that he may have been unlucky, as his expected ERA is significantly lower at 3.06. Schmidt’s last start was uneventful, pitching six innings with three earned runs, but he’s capable of better production, particularly against a Mets lineup that ranks 6th in MLB offensively.

On the other side, Griffin Canning will take the mound for the Mets. Canning has been more effective this season with a stellar 5-1 record and a remarkable ERA of 2.36. However, projections indicate that he may be due for a downturn, as his expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP) is notably higher at 3.38. Canning’s last start was solid, allowing just one earned run over six innings, but he faces a daunting Yankees offense that ranks 2nd in MLB, showcasing their power with the most home runs (76) in the league.

While the Yankees are favored in this matchup, their high implied team total of 5.23 runs suggests that they could capitalize on Canning’s vulnerabilities. This game promises to be a thrilling encounter between two competitive teams, and baseball fans will want to keep an eye on how the Yankees’ potent offense fares against Canning’s effective pitching.

New York Mets Insights

• Griffin Canning – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Griffin Canning has gone to his slider 11% more often this season (35%) than he did last year (24%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Juan Soto has made substantial strides with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 13.3% seasonal rate to 30.3% in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-135)
  Out of all the teams today, the worst outfield defense is that of the the New York Yankees.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Ben Rice – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Ben Rice has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94.4-mph to 100.5-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Anthony Volpe hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 88th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 6th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 44 games (+3.95 Units / 6% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 42 games (+5.64 Units / 11% ROI)
• Griffin Canning – Over/Under 2.5 Walks Allowed (+120/-155)
  Griffin Canning has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+6.35 Units / 75% ROI)