Betting Odds and Bets for Nationals vs Braves – 5/13/25

Washington Nationals

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to face off against the Washington Nationals on May 13, 2025, both teams are looking to improve their standings in the National League East. The Braves sit at 20-21, marking an average start to their season, while the Nationals are struggling at 17-25, indicating a tough year. In their previous matchup, the Braves managed to secure a win, which gives them momentum heading into this game.

Spencer Schwellenbach is projected to take the mound for the Braves, boasting an impressive ranking as the 21st best starting pitcher in MLB, according to the leading MLB projection system. Despite a 1-3 record this season, Schwellenbach’s ERA of 3.61 suggests he has been effective, and he projects to allow 2.2 earned runs over 6.0 innings today. However, he may need to improve his control, as he has a tendency to allow 1.2 walks per game, which could be crucial against a Nationals lineup that ranks as the 15th best offense in MLB.

On the other side, Mike Soroka will be pitching for Washington. While he has potential, currently ranked 59th, Soroka’s struggles are evident in his 7.20 ERA and 0-2 record. He projects to allow 2.5 earned runs over 5.0 innings, but with a less-than-ideal strikeout average of 4.8 batters, the Braves’ offense could have opportunities to capitalize.

The Braves’ offense, while ranked 17th overall, is facing a Nationals bullpen that ranks 19th, indicating a potential advantage for Atlanta. With a high implied team total of 5.10 runs for today’s game, the Braves could be poised for a strong performance, especially given the Nationals’ recent struggles. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, which reflects expectations for a competitive matchup. As the Braves look to build on their previous success, the Nationals will need a significant turnaround to keep pace in this series.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Mike Soroka – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Among all SPs, Mike Soroka’s fastball spin rate of 2530.1 rpm is in the 96th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Josh Bell – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Typically, batters like Josh Bell who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Spencer Schwellenbach.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Washington Nationals bats as a unit place 23rd- in the game for power this year when assessing with their 7.6% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Schwellenbach – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Because flyball hitters struggle against flyball pitchers, Spencer Schwellenbach (45.1% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today’s game with 6 FB hitters in the opposition’s projected lineup.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Ozzie Albies is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Today, Marcell Ozuna is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34.1% rate (82nd percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.80 Units / 64% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 away games (+5.80 Units / 32% ROI)
• Drake Baldwin – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)
  Drake Baldwin has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.70 Units / 46% ROI)