Boston Red Sox
Detroit Tigers
(-110/-110)-105
As the Detroit Tigers prepare to host the Boston Red Sox on May 12, 2025, they’re riding a wave of confidence with a 26-15 record, showcasing one of the strongest starts in recent memory. The Tigers, projected to start right-hander Jackson Jobe, boast the 2nd best bullpen in MLB according to advanced metrics. Meanwhile, Tanner Houck will take the mound for the Red Sox, who sit at 22-20 this season.
In their previous game, the Tigers displayed resilience but ultimately fell short against a division rival, putting added pressure on them to respond at Comerica Park. Jobe’s season has been marked by a 2-0 record, although his 4.88 ERA indicates he may have been somewhat unlucky. Projections suggest he might allow around 2.7 earned runs today, which is below average, while also potentially permitting 4.9 hits—a concern against a solid Red Sox offense that ranks 10th overall.
Conversely, Houck’s struggles have been apparent, posting an ERA of 6.10 and a winless record of 0-2 this year. The projections highlight an expected improvement, suggesting he may limit the Tigers to 2.5 earned runs—an optimistic outlook given his team’s offensive capabilities.
The Tigers rank 6th in MLB offensively, with a particularly strong batting average and home run production. They face a Red Sox lineup that, while lethal with a 10th overall ranking, could fall short against a high-strikeout pitcher like Jobe, who typically excels against such offenses. As both teams look to gain momentum, the implications of this matchup promise to be significant, especially for the Tigers as they aim to solidify their lead in the tightly contested American League.
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-115)The Boston Red Sox infield defense projects as the strongest out of every team today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Rafael Devers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Rafael Devers has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 95.5-mph average to last year’s 93.1-mph figure.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.8%) and will be challenged by the game’s 5th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)Jackson Jobe is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.5% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #25 HR venue in the league in this game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)Spencer Torkelson is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Boston (#2-best of the day).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- The Detroit Tigers have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Riley Greene, Dillon Dingler, Spencer Torkelson).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.80 Units / 55% ROI)
- Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+105)The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 36 games (+8.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- Connor Wong – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-110/-120)Connor Wong has hit the Singles Over in his last 4 games (+4.75 Units / 116% ROI)