Boston Red Sox
Kansas City Royals
(+100/-120)-110
On May 9, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will host the Boston Red Sox at Kauffman Stadium in an American League clash. Both teams are looking to improve their standings, with the Royals currently at 23-16, enjoying a solid season, while the Red Sox sit slightly below .500 at 20-19. The Royals’ offense has struggled, ranking 25th overall in MLB, while the Red Sox boast a much stronger lineup, sitting 8th in the league.
In their most recent game, the Royals’ Michael Lorenzen is projected to take the mound. He has had a mixed season with a 3-3 record and a 4.23 ERA. Despite being ranked as the 206th best starting pitcher according to advanced metrics, Lorenzen’s matchup against the Red Sox’s high-strikeout offense may play to his advantage, as he has a low strikeout rate of 19.6%. Conversely, Hunter Dobbins, projected to start for the Red Sox, has a 2-1 record and a solid 3.78 ERA, but his low strikeout rate of 17.6% could hinder his effectiveness against a Royals lineup that has the second-fewest strikeouts in MLB.
While the Royals’ bullpen ranks 17th, the Red Sox’s bullpen is considered 9th best, giving Boston an edge in late-game scenarios. The game total is set at a high 9.0 runs, reflecting expectations of offensive action. Betting lines favor the Red Sox slightly at -120, while the Royals are at +100. Given the projections, the Royals have a high implied team total of 4.39 runs, suggesting they could find some scoring opportunities against Dobbins.
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Hunter Dobbins – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+135/-175)Hunter Dobbins will hold the platoon advantage over 6 opposing hitters in this game.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Rafael Devers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Rafael Devers has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 95.4-mph average to last season’s 93.1-mph mark.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Boston ranks as the #4 offense in the game when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle span that tends to result the most in base hits (44.7% rate this year).Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)In his last game started, Michael Lorenzen was in good form and compiled 7 strikeouts.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+185/-245)Maikel Garcia is an extreme groundball batter and faces the strong infield defense of Boston (#2-best of all teams on the slate).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Kansas City Royals bats as a group place 28th- in MLB for power this year when assessing with their 6.8% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 36 games (+11.85 Units / 30% ROI)
- Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 away games (+6.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jonathan India – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Jonathan India has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.35 Units / 56% ROI)