Orioles vs Twins Betting Guide – 5/08/25

Baltimore Orioles

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Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins and Baltimore Orioles meet for the third game of their series at Target Field on May 8, 2025, both teams are looking to turn around their lackluster seasons. The Twins currently sit at 17-20, while the Orioles are struggling even more at 13-22. In their last matchup on May 7, the Twins emerged victorious with a solid 5-2 win, marking a bright spot in an otherwise disappointing campaign.

Bailey Ober, projected to start for the Twins, comes into this game with a strong record of 4-1 and an impressive ERA of 3.72. He’s ranked as the 64th best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting he has been above average this season. Ober’s ability to limit walks (4.8 BB%) could play a pivotal role against a low-walk Orioles offense. In his last start on May 3, he delivered a solid performance, going six innings while allowing just one earned run.

On the other side, Dean Kremer is projected to start for the Orioles. With a 3-4 record and a troubling ERA of 5.73, he has struggled this season and is considered one of the worst pitchers in the league. Despite his recent solid outing on May 2, where he pitched seven innings without allowing an earned run, Kremer’s overall performance leaves much to be desired. He faces a Twins offense ranked 19th overall, which has been average at best this season.

While the Twins are favored with a current moneyline of -150, they need to capitalize on Kremer’s struggles to secure another win. With Ober on the mound and coming off a positive performance, Minnesota looks to build momentum and improve their standing in the league.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Dean Kremer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Dean Kremer’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (58.6% compared to 52.9% last year) figures to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  The Minnesota Twins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Cedric Mullins has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Baltimore Orioles have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Typically, batters like Byron Buxton who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Dean Kremer.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins’ bullpen profiles as the 10th-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games (+9.45 Units / 32% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 16 away games (+9.85 Units / 54% ROI)
• Brooks Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Brooks Lee has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+6.55 Units / 24% ROI)