Find the Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Guardians vs Nationals – 5/5/25

Cleveland Guardians

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Washington Nationals

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Ben Lively – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Placing in the 17th percentile, Ben Lively has posted an 18.4% strikeout rate since the start of last season.
  Explain: One of the best indicators of future strikeouts is past strikeouts.
• Daniel Schneemann – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Daniel Schneemann has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 99.1-mph average to last year’s 90.5-mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Carlos Santana – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Carlos Santana pulls many of his flyballs (39.5% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  Given that groundball batters have a significant edge over flyball pitchers, Bradley Lord and his 45.5% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a difficult spot in this game being matched up with 2 opposing GB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Josh Bell – Over/Under Total Bases
  Batters such as Josh Bell with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Ben Lively who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Washington Nationals have been the 10th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in the future
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+5.65 Units / 29% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-120)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 34 games (+7.00 Units / 18% ROI)