Get the Latest Score Updates for Astros vs White Sox – Friday May 02, 2025

Houston Astros

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Chicago White Sox

As the Chicago White Sox prepare to face the Houston Astros on May 2, 2025, at Guaranteed Rate Field, they are looking to build on a rare bright spot from their last outing. The White Sox secured a commanding 8-0 victory over their opponents on May 1, snapping a rough stretch that has left them with an 8-23 record this season. In stark contrast, the Astros are enjoying an above-average season with a 16-14 record, although they did falter in their last game, losing 7-4.

This matchup features two starting pitchers with contrasting trajectories. The White Sox will send Jonathan Cannon to the mound, who is currently ranked as the 221st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, highlighting his struggles this season. Cannon has a 1-3 record with a 4.50 ERA and a concerning 5.09 xFIP, suggesting he may have been fortunate in his outings thus far. He projects to pitch around 5.7 innings, allowing approximately 2.9 earned runs.

On the other side, the Astros will counter with Framber Valdez, who ranks as the 18th best starting pitcher in MLB. Valdez has also recorded a 1-3 record but boasts a stronger 4.00 ERA and just 2.2 projected earned runs allowed. His last start was particularly noteworthy, as he pitched a complete game, allowing only 2 earned runs.

Given the Astros’ superior performance and the White Sox’s struggles, the projections favor Houston significantly. However, with Cannon facing an Astros offense that has been struggling to find power, this game could present an opportunity for the White Sox to capitalize on their recent momentum. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, reflecting the uncertainty in this matchup, and the betting lines currently show the White Sox as substantial underdogs with a moneyline of +205.

Houston Astros Insights

• Framber Valdez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Given his large reverse platoon split, Framber Valdez figures to be at an advantage being matched up with 9 bats in the projected lineup who hit from the other side in today’s outing.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Brendan Rodgers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Brendan Rodgers’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 90.2-mph EV last year has dropped off to 87.4-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• It may be best to expect stronger performance for the Houston Astros offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 8th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+165)
  In his last game started, Jonathan Cannon was firing on all cylinders and conceded 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Batters such as Miguel Vargas with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Framber Valdez who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox’ bullpen projects as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+165)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+6.00 Units / 84% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.65 Units / 34% ROI)
• Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+130/-170)
  Miguel Vargas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.65 Units / 63% ROI)