Athletics
Texas Rangers
(-115/-105)-155
As the Texas Rangers prepare to face off against the Oakland Athletics on April 30, 2025, both teams find themselves hovering around the .500 mark, with the Rangers holding a 16-14 record and the Athletics at 15-15. The magnitude of this matchup is underscored by the fact that it’s the third game in their series, and the Rangers are coming off a resounding 15-2 victory over the Athletics in their last contest.
In this game, the Rangers will send Nathan Eovaldi to the mound, a right-handed pitcher who has established himself as a strong presence this season, currently holding a 2-2 win/loss record and an impressive 2.21 ERA. Despite a decent start to the season, projections indicate Eovaldi might regress, as suggested by his 4.07 xERA, which points to luck on his side thus far. He is a high-strikeout pitcher, averaging 6.2 strikeouts with a 27.1% strikeout rate, but faces an Oakland offense that ranks as the 6th least strikeout-prone in the league.
On the other side, Oakland will counter with Luis Severino, who has struggled this season, sporting a 1-3 record and a 3.49 ERA. While Severino’s ERA looks solid, he is also projected to perform worse going forward, indicated by his 4.09 xFIP. He managed to strike out 7 batters in his last start but allowed 3 earned runs over 6 innings, revealing inconsistencies that could be exploited by the Rangers.
Offensively, the Rangers rank 24th in overall offensive output and 23rd in team batting average, while the Athletics boast a much stronger offensive unit, currently ranking 10th in MLB. However, the Rangers are favored in this matchup with a moneyline of -150, reflecting a solid belief in their chances and an expectation for Eovaldi to lead them to another victory against an Athletics team that has struggled to keep up. With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, bettors should keep an eye on how Eovaldi’s high-strikeout approach fares against Oakland’s disciplined lineup.
Athletics Insights
- Luis Severino – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Over his last 3 outings, Luis Severino has suffered a substantial drop off in his fastball velocity: from 95.2 mph over the entire season to 94.2 mph lately.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
- Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Brent Rooker has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 94.4-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 92.2-mph EV.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Today, Brent Rooker is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.9% rate (97th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Texas Rangers Insights
- Nathan Eovaldi – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Considering that flyball hitters hold a significant advantage over groundball pitchers, Nathan Eovaldi and his 45.6% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a hard position in today’s matchup facing 1 opposing GB batters.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Joc Pederson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Joc Pederson’s true offensive ability to be a .341, indicating that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .158 gap between that mark and his actual .183 wOBA.Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
- Texas Rangers – Moneyline (-155)The Texas Rangers projected batting order grades out as the 5th-best of all teams today in terms of overall batting skill.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.80 Units / 59% ROI)
- Athletics – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 away games (+6.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- Joc Pederson – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+140/-180)Joc Pederson has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+13.50 Units / 35% ROI)