Discover the Game Location for Mets vs Nationals – Monday, April 28, 2025

New York Mets

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Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals prepare to host the New York Mets on April 28, 2025, both teams find themselves at contrasting points in the season. The Nationals, sitting at 13-15, are struggling and currently rank 4th in the National League East. In stark contrast, the Mets boast a strong 19-9 record and are firmly in contention, showcasing their potential as they sit atop the division.

In their last matchup on April 27, the Nationals managed to edge out the Mets in a thrilling 8-7 victory, marking a much-needed win for a team that has been underperforming. Trevor Williams, projected to start for the Nationals, has had a rocky season with a 1-2 record and a 5.11 ERA. His performance has been characterized by inconsistency, although his 3.89 xFIP suggests he might be due for better outcomes. Williams will face a Mets lineup that, while not the most prolific, has shown resilience.

On the other side, Griffin Canning will take the mound for the Mets. Canning has been a bright spot for New York, sporting a 3.12 ERA and a solid 3-1 record. However, the projections indicate he may have benefitted from some good fortune this season. While he’s expected to pitch around 5.4 innings and allow approximately 2.6 earned runs, the Mets’ offense ranks 17th overall, which is average, but they have the potential to capitalize on Williams’ struggles.

With the Game Total set at a high 9.5 runs, this matchup promises to be exciting. The Nationals, despite their recent win, are underdogs with a +140 moneyline, while the Mets are favored at -165. As both teams look to solidify their standings, the outcome of this game could be pivotal for their respective seasons.

New York Mets Insights

• Griffin Canning – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Griffin Canning’s slider utilization has risen by 11.7% from last year to this one (24% to 35.7%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Juan Soto tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Trevor Williams.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Brandon Nimmo has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.6%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Trevor Williams – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Trevor Williams’s 86.8-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 2-mph decline from last season’s 88.8-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Alex Call – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Alex Call is projected to hit 8th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Washington Nationals (20.9 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 2nd-least strikeout-prone team of hitters of all teams today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+7.10 Units / 45% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games (+7.00 Units / 24% ROI)
• Francisco Alvarez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-110/-120)
  Francisco Alvarez has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+5.75 Units / 38% ROI)