Yankees vs Cardinals Picks and Odds – August 16, 2025

New York Yankees

@

St. Louis Cardinals

On August 16, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the New York Yankees at Busch Stadium in what promises to be an intriguing Interleague matchup. The Cardinals are looking to bounce back after a tough 4-3 loss to the Yankees in their previous game, which featured a strong performance from the Yankees’ offense. Currently, the Cardinals sit at 61-62, having an average season, while the Yankees hold a record of 65-57, showcasing an above-average performance.

Sonny Gray is projected to take the mound for St. Louis. Despite being ranked 23rd among starting pitchers in MLB, Gray has shown resilience with an 11-5 record and a 4.06 ERA this season. His 2.94 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky, indicating potential for improvement. In his last start on August 10, he pitched well, going 7 innings with only 1 earned run allowed.

Max Fried, on the other hand, is expected to start for New York. The lefty ranks 7th among starting pitchers and boasts a stellar 12-5 record with an impressive 2.94 ERA. However, his higher xFIP of 3.53 may hint that he has benefited from some good fortune this season. Fried’s last outing wasn’t his best, allowing 4 earned runs over 5 innings.

Offensively, the Cardinals rank 20th overall in MLB, struggling particularly with home runs, sitting at 26th. In contrast, the Yankees feature the 2nd best offense, highlighted by their league-leading home run total. This offensive disparity could play a crucial role in the game, especially with the low Game Total set at 7.5 runs.

With the Cardinals being an underdog at +120 on the moneyline and the Yankees favored at -140, bettors may find value in the Cardinals’ potential for an upset, especially given their starting pitcher’s recent form and the Yankees’ slight vulnerability in Fried’s last outing.

New York Yankees Insights

• Max Fried – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Max Fried has utilized his secondary offerings 5.3% more often this year (56.2%) than he did last season (50.9%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Ryan McMahon is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Yankees’ bullpen grades out as the 5th-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Sonny Gray – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Sonny Gray’s 91.1-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1.2-mph drop off from last year’s 92.3-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Ivan Herrera – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Ivan Herrera has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.5-mph average to last season’s 91.5-mph average.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Lars Nootbaar hits many of his flyballs to center field (41.3% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 39 games (+9.15 Units / 20% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 58 of their last 111 games (+5.42 Units / 4% ROI)
• Sonny Gray – Over/Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (+125/-160)
  Sonny Gray has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+16.30 Units / 52% ROI)