Yankees vs Blue Jays Bets and Betting Trends – 6/30/25

New York Yankees

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Toronto Blue Jays

On June 30, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the New York Yankees at Rogers Centre in what promises to be an exciting American League East matchup. Both teams are currently in the mix for a playoff spot, with the Blue Jays sitting at 45-38 and the Yankees at 48-35. The stakes are high, as this game marks the first in a crucial series between these two rivals.

The Blue Jays are projected to start Max Scherzer, who has had a tumultuous season with a 5.63 ERA, indicating he’s struggled significantly. However, his 4.98 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit unlucky, potentially setting him up for a better performance. Scherzer has only started two games this year, and while he projects to pitch 5.3 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs, his high flyball rate (40 FB%) could be problematic against a Yankees lineup that ranks 4th in home runs.

On the other hand, Carlos Rodon will take the mound for New York. Rodon has been solid this season with a 2.92 ERA and a 9-5 record over 17 starts. Although his 3.50 FIP indicates he may have had some fortune on his side, he still projects to pitch 5.5 innings and allow 2.9 earned runs. His high strikeout rate (29.7 K%) could be tested against a Blue Jays offense that ranks 1st in the league for the least strikeouts.

Offensively, the Yankees boast the 3rd best offense in MLB, while the Blue Jays rank 12th. Toronto’s power numbers are concerning, as they sit 21st in home runs and 25th in stolen bases. Betting odds favor the Yankees with a moneyline of -150, while the Blue Jays are underdogs at +125. Despite the odds, the Blue Jays’ strong bullpen, ranked 3rd in the league, could play a pivotal role in this matchup.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)
  Carlos Rodon is an extreme flyball pitcher (40% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #5 HR venue among all stadiums in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• DJ LeMahieu – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  DJ LeMahieu is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Toronto (#2-best of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• The New York Yankees have 4 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Trent Grisham, Giancarlo Stanton, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Aaron Judge).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Max Scherzer – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Max Scherzer has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his strikeouts since the start of last season, putting up a 7.89 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 9.56 — a 1.67 K/9 gap.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Ernie Clement – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+185/-245)
  Ernie Clement is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 87% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen grades out as the 4th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 69 games (+13.45 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 59 games (+18.22 Units / 28% ROI)
• Giancarlo Stanton – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+310/-450)
  Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 9 away games (+11.50 Units / 128% ROI)