Yankees vs Athletics Matchup Preview and Game Analysis – 9/22/2024

New York Yankees

@

Oakland Athletics

As the New York Yankees visit the Oakland Athletics at the Oakland Coliseum on September 22, 2024, the dynamics between these two teams are intriguing. The Yankees, sitting pretty with a 91-64 record, are enjoying a great season, while the Athletics, with a 67-88 record, have struggled. This game marks the third in the series, with the Yankees likely looking to maintain their dominance given their playoff aspirations.

On the mound for the Athletics is Joey Estes, a right-hander ranked 226th out of approximately 350 pitchers according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Estes has had a tough year, posting a 4.78 ERA across 22 starts, which positions him among the weaker starting pitchers in MLB. However, his xERA of 4.26 suggests that he might have been a bit unlucky this season. Facing the Yankees’ offense, which ranks 3rd best in MLB and leads the league in home runs, could be a daunting task for Estes, especially as he is a high-flyball pitcher.

Luis Gil, also a right-handed pitcher, takes the mound for the Yankees. Ranked 85th in the Power Rankings, Gil has been a reliable arm with a 3.14 ERA this season. However, his xFIP of 4.29 implies that he might be due for some regression. Still, his high strikeout ability, at 27.3 K%, provides him an edge against the Athletics’ lineup, which is 4th in MLB for strikeouts.

Though the Yankees are big betting favorites with a moneyline of -175, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggests some value in betting on the Athletics, projecting their win probability at 43%, which is higher than the betting market suggests. As Joey Estes looks to capitalize on this projection and Shea Langeliers aims to continue his hot streak, the Athletics have the potential to surprise in this matchup.

New York Yankees Insights

• Luis Gil – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Compared to the average pitcher, Luis Gil has been granted an above-average leash this year, recording an additional 3.4 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Anthony Volpe has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (54% of the time), but he is projected to hit 9th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Gleyber Torres has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.2%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 10th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Joey Estes – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Joey Estes has gone to his fastball a lot this year, though: 54.3% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Brent Rooker has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.2-mph average to last season’s 94.9-mph figure.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Oakland Athletics have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler Soderstrom, Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers, Zack Gelof).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Oakland Athletics – Run Line +1.5 (-110)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Run Line in 41 of their last 67 games (+10.85 Units / 12% ROI)
• New York Yankees – Run Line -1.5 (-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 45 of their last 77 away games (+14.95 Units / 15% ROI)
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Brent Rooker has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 21 games (+12.45 Units / 30% ROI)