Winning Probability and Team Stats for Nationals vs Mets Match – (Wednesday July 10, 2024

Washington Nationals

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New York Mets

The New York Mets and the Washington Nationals square off at Citi Field on July 10, 2024, in the second game of their series. The Mets, sitting at 45-45, are having an average season, while the Nationals, with a 42-50 record, are performing below par. This National League East matchup sees the Mets looking to capitalize on their home-field advantage after their 7-5 win over the Nationals yesterday.

Luis Severino takes the mound for the Mets, boasting a 5-3 record with a 3.83 ERA. Despite being ranked as the #160 best starting pitcher in MLB, Severino has shown some promising stats this season. His 4.33 xFIP suggests he’s been a bit lucky, indicating potential regression. Severino’s recent performance, allowing 7 earned runs over 6 innings on July 5, raises some concerns. On the flip side, the Mets’ offense, ranked 4th in home runs and 10th in batting average, provides robust support.

For the Nationals, Patrick Corbin will start. Corbin has struggled this year, evident from his 1-8 record and a 5.49 ERA. However, a 4.46 xFIP hints at some bad luck, suggesting he could improve. Corbin’s groundball tendencies (47 GB%) might help neutralize the Mets’ power. Yet, with the Nationals’ offense ranked 29th in home runs, the lack of firepower could be a significant disadvantage.

The Mets’ bullpen, ranked 23rd, and the Nationals’ bullpen, at 28th, both leave room for late-game volatility. Offensively, Francisco Lindor leads the Mets, while CJ Abrams shines for the Nationals. Recent hot streaks from Tyrone Taylor and Luis Garcia could also play pivotal roles.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Mets to score 5.80 runs and the Nationals 4.34 runs. With the Mets being a big betting favorite (-190) and a projected win probability of 65%, the odds align heavily in favor of New York. Bettors might find value in backing the Mets in what looks to be another high-scoring affair.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Patrick Corbin – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Out of all starters, Patrick Corbin’s fastball velocity of 90.8 mph is in the 11th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Keibert Ruiz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Keibert Ruiz’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 89.9-mph mark last year has dropped off to 86.4-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Juan Yepez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  Juan Yepez pulls many of his flyballs (35.1% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• Luis Severino – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+140/-180)
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Luis Severino has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an extra 3.7 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+205/-275)
  Jose Iglesias is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the weak infield defense of Washington (#31-worst on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-200)
  The New York Mets projected lineup grades out as the 4th-strongest on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 52 of their last 85 games (+13.55 Units / 13% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 45 of their last 79 games (+8.00 Units / 8% ROI)
• Jacob Young – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+185/-245)
  Jacob Young has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 16 games (+9.90 Units / 61% ROI)