Winning Probability and Match Preview for Orioles vs Mets – 8/20/2024

Baltimore Orioles

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New York Mets

As the New York Mets prepare to host the Baltimore Orioles on August 20, 2024, both teams are looking to build momentum in this pivotal Interleague matchup. The Mets currently sit at 65-60, showcasing an above-average season, while the Orioles boast a strong 73-53 record, positioning themselves among the top teams in the league. This series is crucial, especially after the Mets edged out the Orioles 4-3 just yesterday.

Projected starters Jose Quintana and Dean Kremer present an interesting clash. Quintana, a left-handed pitcher, has struggled this season, holding a 6-8 record with an average ERA of 4.26. However, advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat fortunate, as his 4.97 xERA indicates potential regression. In his last outing, he allowed 4 earned runs over 4 innings, indicating he may be vulnerable.

Conversely, Kremer, despite a 5-9 record and a 4.48 ERA, pitched well in his last start, allowing only 1 earned run over 6 innings. However, he has also been marked as a bad pitcher by MLB standards, and his 5.10 xERA suggests he too could face challenges going forward.

Offensively, the Mets rank 8th in MLB and are particularly potent with power, ranking 4th in home runs this season. This could play to their advantage against Kremer, who has a high flyball rate of 40%. The projections indicate the Mets are favored, with a high implied team total of 4.50 runs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  When it comes to his home runs, Gunnar Henderson has had positive variance on his side this year. His 35.2 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 24.9.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (+115)
  The 5th-best projected offense on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the the Baltimore Orioles.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

New York Mets Insights

• Jose Quintana – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jose Quintana has relied on his off-speed and breaking balls 5.6% more often this season (49.2%) than he did last year (43.6%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jesse Winker – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Jesse Winker is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen profiles as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 27 games at home (+14.10 Units / 44% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line +1.5 (-185)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 64 of their last 117 games (+19.45 Units / 14% ROI)
• Jeff McNeil – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+660/-1300)
  Jeff McNeil has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 33 games (+32.00 Units / 97% ROI)