Winning Probability and Match Preview for Guardians vs Brewers – 8/18/2024

Cleveland Guardians

@

Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers will host the Cleveland Guardians on August 18, 2024, in the third game of an exciting interleague series. Both teams are performing well this season, with the Brewers at 71-52 and the Guardians slightly ahead at 72-51. The stakes are high, as both squads aim to solidify their positions in the playoff race.

In their previous matchup on August 17, the Brewers edged out the Guardians 2-1, showcasing their competitive edge. Milwaukee’s Colin Rea is projected to take the mound, bringing a 10-4 record and a solid 3.72 ERA this season. However, his 4.36 xFIP suggests he may have benefitted from some luck, and he struggled in his last outing, allowing 7 earned runs in 6 innings.

On the opposing side, Ben Lively, with a 10-7 record and a 3.71 ERA, is also looking for a bounce-back performance after struggling in his last start, where he allowed 3 earned runs over just 4 innings. While both pitchers have had their ups and downs, the projections indicate that Lively may have a slight advantage against a Brewers offense that ranks 9th overall in MLB but is 20th in home runs.

The projections favor the Guardians slightly, estimating they’ll score around 4.95 runs compared to the Brewers’ 4.59 runs. However, with the Brewers’ potent offense, including standout Willy Adames, and their strong bullpen ranked 13th, they could well defy the odds. Bettors should keep an eye on this matchup, especially considering the close contest expected, with current moneylines set at -120 for Milwaukee and +100 for Cleveland. This game promises to be another thrilling chapter in their competitive series.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Ben Lively – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Ben Lively has utilized his non-fastballs 6.2% less often this year (39.4%) than he did last year (45.6%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Will Brennan – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+185/-245)
  Will Brennan has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (54% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen projects as the 10th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Colin Rea – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Out of all starters, Colin Rea’s fastball velocity of 91.7 mph ranks in the 23rd percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  The Cleveland Guardians have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brice Turang stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Jackson Chourio hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 96th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 60 games at home (+13.45 Units / 21% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 57 away games (+10.10 Units / 16% ROI)
• Bo Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+580/-1100)
  Bo Naylor has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 11 games (+15.40 Units / 140% ROI)